exchange

this book offers a lot as far as different configurations and install options on deploying and managing exchange it's a handy book to have.

Although this book is put out by a respected academic press it is ultimately, a polemical, not a scientific, work. The authors ignore copious evidence (statistical and otherwise) which would undercut their case. Indeed, the original econometric evidence that is presented to support their position is fundamentally flawed.

I do not want to write what it is usually called a "review". As an author that has been mentioned in some of the articles published by various authors in this book, I would like to get their e-mail addresses, so I can exchange a direct opinion with them. I think that this is actually a drawback of your books. You do not let the readers get in contact with the authors.
I would appreciate if you can give my email address to Dr. Sean Kingsley.
Yours,
Andrei Opait

Introduction

The objectives of the book are:  To study in detail the stock market crashes, to discover what went wrong and to learn from these past traumatic episodes; and  To identify and explain the underlying structure of the financial market behavior.

Chaos is Discovered Newtonian vs. Chaos For the last 300 years, our thoughts have been profoundly influenced by the Newtonian theory, which, as we know, rests on assumption of a linear system. This theory is best applied to system with two objects interacting with each other. When used to elucidate the system with three objects or more, Newtonian theory collapses.

Chaos theory, which is based on complex and non-linear system, is a relatively new discipline (circa 30 years). Its use in social science and field of physics have gained wide acceptance. The author attempts to apply the theory to the financial market.

Chaos Rules

Chaos describes unpredictable behavior that is governed by rules. Ian Stewart in his book, "Does God Play Dice?" gives the following definition: "Chaos is lawless behavior governed entirely by law".

Chaos in Financial Market

The author comment regarding the stock market behaviors using the chaos theory is as follows:  Financial market is inherently unstable and dynamic system, and the mood of the majority of its player can flip almost instantaneously from one state to another. Hence financial market resembles a chaotic system. An orderly phase may dissolve into chaos & then tip back to a more ordered state.  Stock markets are holistic that sometimes their collective behaviors will be different from that of their component unit (i.e. individuals & investors).

Chaos Theory in Actions After noting the similarities between financial markets behavior and chaos theory, the author studied several important financial crises over the last 300 years to see whether there was any underlying structure beneath the crashes. She discovered that many speculative bubbles shared a cluster of common features. \ The author does not try to predict when the crash will happen. Instead, she seeks to uncover what is the underlying structure of financial market and how investor can profit from it by assessing in which phase he is at a particular time.

The author studied the following crashes and described the sequence of events using the ten phase structure: 1. Bubbles of 1720  Mississippi Madness  South Sea Fiasco 2. Modern Bubbles  Great Crash 1929  Global Crash 1987  Japanese Bubble  Bonds Bubble

So what if we know the history and chaos theory?

How To Be Prepared? Compiling a checklist based on the structure of crash scenario (ten-phase structure) has the following purposes:

 It is a systematic way of dealing with the situation. It provides an orderly framework to analyze the signals and prepare oneself for any occurrence of the crash; and

 It helps the investors to judge more clearly how far along the route of chaos scenario has progressed.

(The checklist is elaborated in the textbook).

In addition to the checklist, there is also a need to look out for other cluster of symptoms or occurrence of other events (such as emergence of new financial tools, collapse of big corporations etc) to confirm the findings from the checklist.

What to do with the checklist? To avoid any avalanche of selling, one must be able to identify at least the first 3-5 phases and clear your position at phase 5 or 6 (i.e. when gullible public joins in or when doubt starts to form).

However, if one misses the signal and fails to sell off by phase 6, it is still not too late to do so as long as it is done before the markets reach the bottom. This will allow one to cash out and reinvest when the markets hit the bottom.

What if u misses all the phases? - As the chaos theory shows, the market will turn around eventually. However, the issue is how long will it take? No one knows.

Timing the Crash - Is it possible? Whilst it may not be too difficult to identify the signals of an impending crash (based on the phases in the structure of crashes), one can never accurately predict the timing of occurrence. Time is the most untrustworthy and unpredictable element. As shown in the charts, the points might get squeezed together or pulled part -- this is a common feature of a chaotic system.

Since predicting the exact timing of crashes is highly unreliable, in order to avoid being caught off guard, one has to closely watch for any trigger event that may unleash a selling cascade. Another strategy is to give up the hope of catching the extreme peak and bottom and be contended as long as you buy near the bottom and sell near the top.

Conclusion

Chaos theory has taught investors how to preserve their capitals from the disaster of a crash. The 3 main points to bear in mind are as follows:

 Need to recognize any unintentional actions of the financial authorities which may create a classic chaos conditions and prepare own course of actions;

 Even the most sophisticated and cautious long term investors can become irrational and act in tandem with the speculators; and

 Understand that falling bond prices with rising interest rate may result from the collapse of a financial pump instead of a reflection of the fundamental outlook of the economy.

One of the most important events to watch is the action by the presiding authorities which may trigger a financial pump and set the phase transition in motion. When it happens, one should know how to react.

In conclusion, as a Fund Manager, one should

 Be fully aware of what is happening in the financial, political and economic sectors around the world. One of them could be the trigger event.  Be able to identify at which phase the financial market is in and predict the transition and the edge of chaos.  Be able to clear his position and not to be influenced by the herd behavior if he concludes that the market at peak and near the point of collapse. This is a tough discipline to follow especially if he has a strict mandate and the clients' expectations increase during the boom.

This is an odd, dark novel that is more John Grisham thriller than conventional British whodunnit. Gavin Penfold is an IT security expert at a large bank, living a successful and primly conventional life. On his way home late on a Friday night, he and his new Jaguar are hijacked, changing all that. The hijackers accidentally hit a pedestrian and leave Gavin to face the music after forcing him to consume a huge amount of whiskey. He is eventually charged with DUI and the hit and run accident.

The CID officers Penfold encounters do not resemble the stereotypes we are accustomed to in British mysteries. There is no aristocratic chief inspector who writes poetry in between murder investigations; no female detective inspector driven to prove herself by solving crimes at all costs. There aren't even any mild-mannered (but canny) rural constables to plod after the truth. The detectives Gavin meets are run-of-the-mill civil servants. Some are lazy womanizers, some are misanthropic bullies, and some are dedicated, hard-working policemen. The soliciters and barristers don't resemble Grisham's heros any more than the detectives resemble their BBC counterparts.

No one is murdered in this book. The main casualites are Gavin's illusions and his innocence. The ending is short, cynical, and unsatisfactory.

This book is a collection of articles that examine gift-giving behavior- a field that has only recently been researched in the last decade. The book explores the motive's for gift giving process of selecting and presenting. It focuses on Christmas and Wedding gifts, and briefly covers gender roles, the cultural differences of gift exchange, and self-gifts. One section of the book is devoted to the role of ethnicity in gift giving. I found this book to be helpful and informative, but mainly a stepping stone for further research on gift-giving behavior.

The book covers nearly all subjects under globalization. In the first part, it describes the environment of global enterprise. In the second part, it discusses about strategies. The examples given in the book are good and specific for the subject. However they are not the recent ones. In such a fast growing business environment, the examples should be much more recent. The most recent ones are from 1994. For example it only covers Asian crisis in the postscript. Therefore I would recommend a book which has recent data and examples in it.

I feel this book is a valuable aid for the futures speculator but only when it comes to certain things. The first thing that comes to mind is the last section of the book "World Directory of Commodity markets". In this section a huge # of Commodity exchanges are listed with vital facts such as: commodities traded, contract size, hours of the day the commodity is traded, and how to reach the exchange. Exchanges range from places like Bolsa Brasiliera de Futuros in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil to the Chicago Board of Trade. This section is valuable and comprehensive. The first two sections of the book gave some info on individual commodities such as Sugar and Silver but I did not find this information to be anything exceptional or extremely usefull. I wish the last third of this book was sold by itself for a third of the price.

There are few of books describing the recent IGES. This book provides us a some old but complete and useful background on the standard. I expect such a book on IGES 5.x

this is the typical technical data collection, no twist or plot or comedy, just plain dry. give it a looksee, will ya?