economics-statistics

The Winged Watchman is a fictional story about a Dutch family, the Verhagens, who live in a mill in the middle of WWII. They include Mother, Father, Joris, and Dirk Jan. Throughout the process of the book there are many additions to the Verhagen family. They include Trixie (a little Jewish girl who's parents were taken away at the beginning of the war), Freya (an abused dog rescued by Joris), Charles (an English aviator), Uncle Cor (a member of the Underground Resistance Movement), Koba and Betsy (two young girls who came to stay with them because of lack of food at their own house), and Hildebrand (a young man who was interested in studying rather than working in the resistance). The Verhagen family eventually becomes very involved in the resistance movement. It is sad when Uncle Cor dies, but the book actually has a very happy theme to it. This book mixes adventure, history, and suspense, and it's okay for children. They do mention shooting and concentration camps, but they aren't graphically described. They don't happen at the same time. They are mentioned as something that happened somewhere else. This book is a perfect example of the spirit of teamwork.

There are not many classics in the category of war books, but this one is a masterfully written exception. It follows the experiences of the Verhagens, a small close-knit family living in a windmill named "The Winged Watchman" in the Holland countryside, through WWII. The story begins when Leendert Schenderhans, a boy on a neighboring farm, becomes a Nazi landwatcher, causing trouble for the patriotic Verhagens. Tension mounts as the Verhagens become more and more involved in the war, sheltering runaways, participating in crucial events, like undercover weapon droppings, and aiding their anti-Nazi Uncle Cor. I would definitely recommend this book to anyone desiring a different perspective of WWII than just the American side of the story.

The Nazi occupations of neighboring European countries is not a subject that is well addressed in children's literature. here is a chance for young and old alike to face the impact the Nazi occupation had on The Netherlands. It is a fantastic tale of bravery and faith amid the inhumanity of the Nazi mentality and those who cooperated with them. We see how the Nazis courted a young man, known to be bad anyway, for the task of spying and informing on his neighbors. we see how even his own faily was afraid of this youth's power and its abuse. But, we also see the strength of the Dutch character as they sufefred hunger , bombings and loss of life and property. Von Stockum has clearly exposed the evil of the Nazis but she has shown the courage of those who fought them. memorable and so appropiate after Sept. 11th.

I've seen a lot of Internet books come and go. This is one of the few that sits on my bookshelf and that I pull down frequently. Author Peter Clemente has his pulse on what's going on out there and shares it in a very accessible, one-to-one tone, unlike many of these books that are just brimming over with geek speak. --Larry Chase, publisher, Web Digest For Marketers

This book distinctively captures the evolution of the Internet in statistics and an easy, fun to read narrative. I believe it is an indispensable treasure trove for marketers, entrepreneurs and students -- anyone interested in cutting through the hype to understand the realities of who uses the Internet today, what they do online, and how the Internet is likely to evolve in the near future. I've found no other book like it, especially the way it uses survey statistics and analysis to support its conclusions. It's really a neat, unique book.

As a small start-up company in the rapidly changing world of new media we're always looking for reliable Internet information to support our business objectives. "State of the Net" has not only helped justify our existence to our investors, but also helped us identify a new target online audience. We've invested thousands of dollars in industry reports in the past and ended up with very little substantive information. In "State of the Net", Mr. Clemente provides a gold mine of useful and reliable information. Any Internet start-up would be crazy to pass up this gem. Steven Canale

Full of real-life examples that provide some intuitive insight about the issues that may arise when modelling time series and forecasting. Requires some initial knowledge in statistics and algebra but if you're involved in time series modelling, it should be your first book. All the data thats used is available in the authors webbsite for downloading, very nice.

To make this review short, I will say that I agree with all seven points made by the reviewer from New York, NY, whomever he or she may be. Franses is clear, concise, authoritative and up-to-date on all the advances.

I particularly like the nice coverage of GARCH models that are new to me. It is a great introductory text especially for economics majors. For more advanced books and other treatments of time series consider Kennedy's fourth edition of "A Guide to Econometrics" or the suggestion from reviewer "New York, NY". Also my listmania list on time series will give you several sources to look at.

Recently, I reread Franses book and expanded my review, which now includes 10 benefits.
(1) Organization by key features of economic time series (trends, seasonality, outliers, conditional heteroskedasticity, non-linearity), rather than by methods, which provides a practical foundation for the various methodologies. The order in which chapters are presented reflects the order of difficulty in modeling trends, seasonality, etc. Even if there were no other benefits, this organization makes it worthwhile.
(2) Appropriate level for first book on time series models as applied to economic time series, explaining more difficult concepts GARCH and VAR without excess detail. Box and Jenksins book is more a textbook; Brockwell and Davis is also more advanced; Hamilton is comprehensive and technical, but not as friendly. This book is very approachable even if you have had only 1 or 2 statistics courses. In economics, many people are interested in forecasting, and Franeses here is a good start. If you are looking for a more advanced forecasting book, try the recent books by Clements and Hendry from Cambridge U Press.
(3) Clear distinction of the steps of model identification, estimation, diagnostics, and selection; something which other time series analysis books do not seem to do early or easily. (4) Delineates stochastic and deterministic models in the second chapter, providing a framework for when to take differences (eg. ARMA vs ARIMA). His timing is excellent. Many people I have interviewed on time series do not understand why they need to difference (eg use prices instead of returns) or why to transform the series (eg use logs instead of actual values).
(5) Generous use of examples with real not simulated data with a website to download all the data, making it possible to import, graph, and analyze on your own.
(6) A website containing printing corrections. Techincal books are likely to have some errors, but very few keep websites to list what those are.
(7) Revealing graphics, especially for conditional heteroskedasticity, the 'CH' in GARCH. Figures 7.1-7.3 illustrate the concept that large returns tend to follow large returns very cleanly.
(8) His notation is clear and consistent, yet not overwhelming: conventional Greek letters, only 1 level of subscripting, matrix noation where appropriate; even the results are neatly presented, as standard errors appear in () below their point estimates. Finally, Franses uses the same notation from chapter to chapter where the term is the same--not so common when chapters written by different authors.
(9) Great appendices: extensive and updated references, a thorough subject index, and an author index. My only suggestion for improvement is that a second edition or the website should contain some exercises. Highly recommended.
(10) The price! There are books published under Wiley at 3 to 4 times the price! under Springer Verlag for 2 to 3 times the price. Certain books are worth the money, but Cambridge University Press paperback publications, when written well, are exeptional values. I encourage the ambitious time series student to look at other time series books, including one written this year by Franses including Quantitative Models in Market Research.

Hosmer and Lemeshow point to the massive growth in applications of logistic regression over a ten year period from the time of publication of the first edition of their text. They found over 1000 articles that used logistic regression during that time frame. There also have been many software advances that make it easier to apply logistic regression. The authors do their computing mostly in STATA. But they also acquaint the reader with many other useful standard packages for applying logistic regression. They also provide a web site from the publisher where data sets can be found.

New topics include the use of exact methods in logistic regression, logistic models for multinomial, ordinal and multiple response data. Also included is the use of logistic regression in the analysis of complex survey sampling data and for the modeling of matched studies.

The book is intended for a graduate course in logistic regression requiring the student to be familiar with linear regression and contingency tables. Similar in spirit and objectives to the first edition, this text also maintains the clarity of thought and presentation that these authors have a history of providing.

This is an important update to the first edition and is worth having on the bookshelf in any biostatistics library. I have my own personal copy and I think many others would also benefit by having it as a reference.

This is an excellent beginning and intermediate text on logistic regression analysis. Avoids the thorny details, but provides a wealth of references for those who are interested.

Anyone who is serious about doing logistic regression analysis should have this book.

This is a very popular and well written text on logistic regression. The topic is very useful to biostatisticians. Hosmer and Lemeshow have taught some short course out of the text which have been well received. The authors are knowledgeable and thorough. The book is very much oriented toward real applications and does not require advanced mathematics.

Ah, corporate vision statements. Before reading Guiding Growth I did not put great faith in them. I, as the author, Mark Lipton, was not convinced of the power of corporate visions at the beginning of his research. Visioning to some extent has been a management fad that has come and gone. However Lipton's research finds that for companies who truly have a vision that helps their companies stretch and grow, and is deeply embedded in their organizations; the market returns are demonstrably better.

Vision, in Lipton's model is composed of three elements: raison d'être, strategy and values. In Guiding Growth Whole Foods Market is quoted as saying 'our vision statement reflects the hope and intentions of many people. We do not believe it always accurately portrays the way things currently are at Whole Foods market so much as the way would like things to be. It is our dissatisfaction with the current reality, when compared with what is possible, that spurs us toward excellence and toward creating a better, company and world.' Strong stuff indeed. And in ManyWorlds' experience, for many companies the articulation of a vision is often based on their heritage, not to where they want to grow, and not what differentiates them.

Lipton also examines the role of executive groups (not teams) and the alignment of people processes with vision, to bring the vision alive, real and accountable. The book is as much about leadership and organizational culture as it is about growth and vision, which are of course the fruits and seeds of each other, within the organizational greenhouse. He writes, 'Organizations rocketing through extended periods of growth. To succeed, they need a combination of all the right ingredients and they must be in near-perfect alignment. If one element is missing, or out of alignment, then the potential for failure rockets as well...all organization share the same need to have the right ingredients in place and to ensure they are aligned and that is what the executive group accomplishes through the vision framework.'

Peppered with examples from a range of companies and with deeper analysis of high-growth organizations such as Oakley, Lipton has done an excellent job of presenting both a visioning framework and insights into culture and leadership into a practical and usable work. Helpful lists of questions, checklists and exercises bring this already enthusiastic text to a more approachable and actionable level. Highly recommended for executives and managers from a variety of functional areas including business unit heads and 'service lines' such as HR.

Reading "Guiding Growth" has been a joy - finally a practical book about vision. Like Lipton, I was suspicious about the whole vision industry, but his book has helped to look at the concept in a different light.
The distinction between the 3 principles - raison d'etre, strategy and values is most insightful (especially since raison d'etre and strategy are often mixed up).
Despite all good intentions, the reality is that the vision process often ends with the communication of a vision statement. Lipton shows how the real impact can go far beyond just an energising event: it is pivotal in guiding and sustaining growth.

In my own experience vision is often treated with more suspicion in Europe than in the US. Lipton's book, however, is as valuable for those who are in charge of building or changing an organisation in the US as in Europe (or any other part of the world) - Guiding Growth goes beyond the hype. It asks some tough questions and invites you to think about how you can unlock the wholehearted commitment of your workforce by providing meaning to the existence of the organization. A must.

Yippee! No academic psycho-babble, overly complex diagrams, or overly simplistic management fables in this one. "Guiding Growth" is smart, witty, and engaging - a must-read for business leaders concerned about sustainable competitive advantage.

Lipton begins by admitting something few other professor/consultant/authors would ever dare: he was wrong. Convinced that the link between vision and growth was over-rated, that vision statements were just a passing fad, Lipton was surprised when his research proved exactly the opposite. Now, readers can reap the benefits of Lipton's change of heart. In "Guiding Growth," he leads us through the journey of understanding how valuable a clear vision can be when articulated and acted upon in a powerful way.

Mark Lipton's writing voice is passionate and profoundly personal. While this book is well-grounded in research and experience, it is Lipton's use of stories and metaphors that will have a long-lasting effect on you. Yes, he makes you think; more important, he makes you feel something in your heart and in your gut. It is this quality that sets this book apart from other business books.

Be forewarned: the feelings "Guiding Growth" provokes can be very uncomfortable at times. Throughout the early chapters, I stopped often to think and jot down notes about my own vision, my own raison d'etre, as Lipton raised "Why?" questions over and over again. By the end of Chapter 4, I was saying "Yes! Yes! Yes!" as the vision for my work became clearer. Reading Chapter 5 brought tears to my eyes as he described the strong connection between vision and deeply held values based on life experiences.

The second half of the book holds valuable advice for all business leaders: how to put that vision into action, overcome obstacles, and avoid pitfalls. Lipton's Vision Framework has been tried and tested - he proves his points with examples drawn from well-known companies.

Kudos to Mark Lipton for having the guts to publicly concede that he was wrong and for taking the time to share his lessons learned with us in this book. -- Cynthia C. Froggatt, author of "Work Naked: Eight Essential Principles for Peak Performance in the Virtual Workplace" (Jossey-Bass/Wiley, 2001), ...

There are many resources for learning the "how" of doing statistical analysis. Few, however, give a good explanation of the concepts that underlie "why" things are done that way. This book explains the essential concepts that are the foundation of statistical analysis. It is written to appeal to a wide audience, regardless of area of expertise, and will give you the bases to understand statistical analysis. It's a generally easy read, and far better than any other statistics book I've ever seen. If your position requires a general overview of statistical methods, this is the top choice.

This is the ideal entry-level statistics book. It provides you with a conceptual understanding of the field of data analysis, with an overview of the most commonly used statistical analysis techniques; whether univariate, bivariate, or multivariate. It requires no heavy math background. Instead it uses mostly verbal and graphical descriptions, emphasizing the rationales, interpretations, and applications of each technique. After you digest the material in this book, you can then tackle the more typical technical textbooks that abound. Also, this book will prepare you for understanding the statistical techniques in the Excel or 123 spreadsheet programs, as well as the many statistical packages such as SPSS, minitab, SAS, etc. If you are a practicing statistical consultant, this book will help you communicate with your clients in plain language. And the book is a bargain at twice the price.

Excellent! It makes sense out of myriads of mathematical endeavors without being entangled with them. It gives one an introduction of what s/he is about to embark. It gives one an overview of what s/he has managed to learn. It shows one the forest not the trees.

This is the best book available on interest rate models. Very detailed. Much more focused and readable than Rebonato's book. More pragmatic and explicit than Musiela and Rutkowski. Not as theoretical as Hunt and Kennedy. James and Webber also looks very good, but I'm not that familiar with it. All other books have only bits and pieces on interest rates.

With all the due respect to the other authors I would say that if one is interested in a good theoretical book whihc is also good on the implementation side then the book of Brigo and Mercurion is definetly the best book I have ever read on the subject.

Anyone interested in implementing the LMM/BGM/MSS model in practice is well advised to read it.

I would just say that this is certainly a must have in the field.

In the late nineties I went through Brigo's innovative work on stochastic nonlinear filtering with differential geometry techniques. I was favorably impressed by results and style, particularly in his dissertation and in his 'geometry in present day science' very readable overview. Interesting results are found and nicely told with accurate - but not pointlessly complicated - advanced mathematics for the problems at hand, I reasoned.

I've followed a similar path from control to finance, and having worked with interest rate models, I couldn't help but order this Brigo-Mercurio book. I had high expectations 'cause these two guys are working in a bank on the real thing.

Sure enough I'm not disappointed.

1-factor models are handled with great care, a ton of formulas and recipes are given. I've never seen this kind of analysis of pricing with Gaussian 1-f models. The new upgrade of the CIR model is interesting and accurate. "CIR++" is now my favorite 1-f model. I like the treatment of lognormal 1-f models and the explanation of Monte Carlo and trees -- the flow-chart for Bermudan swaptions is crystal clear! Plots of market implied structures and volatility calibration are useful additions.

The chapter on 2-f extensions has one of the best discussions on volatility, and two tons of useful formulas/recipes. Two dimensional trees!

The HJM chapter size is OK. I agree - the useful models embedded in HJM are short rate models and market models.

Market models - these three chapters alone are worth the book. You'll find yourself nodding as you read the guided tour. They make it look easy all the time. The exposition is focused, clear, intuitive, detailed. There's also new stuff, just check the calibration discussion! Smile modeling begins with a brilliant tour and ends with Brigo-Mercurio's new approach - the mixing dynamics - deserving a whole chapter if expanded.

The detailed explanation on products is a much welcome original addition. Cross currency derivatives!

Quotes - as in Brigo's old work - are a pleasant diversion while reading. The 500 and more pages are a treat given the competitive price.

Still there's room for improvements - more "CIR2++"! Something on 3-f models. Historical estimation of the correlation matrix and low-rank optimized approximations. Expand smile modeling! More hedging. Something on structured products. Cross currency libor model. chapter 9 - other interest rate models - sounds out of place and can be suppressed for other things.

This book rings true and has useful teachings for students, academics and practitioners. Although it requires some background in stochastic calculus, it's hard to beat on the pricing front. Kudos to Brigo and Mercurio! It only harms there aren't enough books like this.

Like his other books, Franses provides an nice applied treatment of non-linear time series models that are in this case applicable to finance. It includes extensive coverage of regime switching models. It includes data drawn from several financial markets including Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

The major distinction of the book from Granger&Terasvirta's earlier work is its focus on financial applications of regime switching (RS) models and the author's separate treatment of RS in returns(means) and volatilities(variances) by putting them in different chapters. Another welcome feature is the availability of accompanying procedures in Gauss downloadable from the author's website. I would have expected a lengthier treatment of Markov RS models but I guess either the authors leave this to Tsay's new book or quote Hamilton as classical reference source.

The major distinction of the book from Granger&Terasvirta's earlier work is its focus on financial applications of regime switching (RS) models and the author's strategy of separate treatment of RS of returns(means) and volatilities(variances) by putting them in different chapters. Another wellcome feature is the availability of accompanying procedures in Gauss downloadable from the author's website. I would have expected a lengthier treatment of Markov RS models but I guess either the authors leave this to Tsay's new book or quote Hamilton as classical reference source.

Various topics are discussed, such as percentages, units and measurements, probability, statistics, etc., with a strong emphasis on rounding numbers to perform quick calculations in one's head in order to get ball park estimates of the desired results. It is also emphasized that producing results to n decimal places is rarely necessary in day to day calculating. Although this book is clear and well-written, it may, nevertheless, instill fear into the minds of those people who are uncomfortable with numbers. I therefore agree with a prior reviewer that the book may be aimed at the educators; the book's last chapter would seem to support this.

Authors Niederman and Boyum articulate that we live today in a new Quantitative Information Age. Strange then, that they did not entitle their book, "Ten Habits of Highly Effective Quantitative Thinkers" (actually the title of Chapter Two) - this book would have sold twice as much.

Ahh! Twice as much as what? As Stephen Covey's books? As much as this book's actual sales? What's the base? Now that I've read this "Field Guide to Mastering Our Numerical World" (actually the subtitle,) I am trained to ask the pertinent questions about numerical comparisons. I have learned to simultaneously "only trust the numbers" and to "never trust the numbers" - habits #1 and #2.

In this entertaining tour of today's quantitative landscape, the authors expose our collective inability to cope with numerical reasoning. From humorous pot shots at "our favorite punching bag, the International Skating Union," whose farcical scoring systems are easily exposed, to a better method of comparing safety between small plane flying and automobile safety, to famous courtroom misuses of statistical data, Niederman and Boyum demonstrate a growing gap between our increasingly data dependent decisions and our nation's declining numerical literacy.

"What The Numbers Say" provides a layman's look at mathematical skills required by everyone. It is a book for non-mathematicians, liberal arts students, teachers of all subjects, political and educational leaders, and above all, parents. To anyone struggling with children struggling to master the multiplication table, and wondering what became of the rote memorization and textbooks from earlier days, the authors make sense of the new teaching techniques. Traditionally, it seems, mathematicians have been Euclideans, "deriving truths, in step-by-step fashion, from first principles or axioms." But, "good quantitative thinkers are Babylonians. They understand that quantities can be measured and expressed in many different ways, and that looking at something from multiple viewpoints enhances perspective and fosters creative thinking." Finally, we understand why our kids can't complete the 9-times Table, but are whizzes at stacking Lego blocks.

Niederman and Boyum embellish their hypotheses deriving wonderful examples of easy-to-comprehend quantitative situations involving baseball, weather forecasting, popular movies, roulette odds, consumer tips, home finance and stock market analysis, timed swimming contests, fair games, and more. Readers cannot fail to understand how simple some of the recipes (Pareto's Law, The Rule of 72, how to interpret Zagat's Restaurant Guides) are for understanding quantitative measurement. Mathematics, long misunderstood as "uncool" for its complicated formulae and notation, in fact, is often a beautiful and handy tool with which to find "the easy way out."

Though the authors uncover highly political ramifications of misunderstood data and twisted statistics (e.g., environmental debates), the book is apolitical save for the last chapter that cries out for educational reforms. Niederman and Boyum sum the book up neatly with suggestions for educators regarding curricula, calculators, and competitiveness. They propose ending the "math wars between Progressives and Traditionalists," and put forth solutions. The authors' main salvo: differentiate between mathematics and quantitative reasoning, and offer training on a separate track for each.

Put this on your 'to-read' list for the coming year. If only to find out how many combinations a 2 X 3 Lego brick can form.

This book, by a friend and former colleague, is a wonderful introduction to the ways that numbers are used, and misused, in our work and everyday lives.

If you are uneasy with quantitative reasoning, you will never read the business page, or your medical chart in quite the same way after reading this book. If you fancy yourself more sophisticated, you will still learn a lot, and you will swoon with joy at the emphatic debunking of much humbug: predictable flaws of Olympic judging, hidden messages in the Bible, and so on. the chapter on measures is my favorite. I never understood the difference between an acre and a hectare.

I have assigned Chapters 2 and 3 to my masters' level students in policy analysis. I think this is a nice addition to the bookshelf of any manager, investment manager, or reader of the sports page.

This book provides practical advice for developing a business continuity plan in a very readable form. The use of case studies and planning scenarios is particularly helpful in applying the concepts to real life situations.

As an instructor in the emergency management field, I found this book to be concise and on-target with respect to preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters...both public and private. Mr. Laye's ability to convey the reason and methods of preparedness and response is apparently based on experience and in-depth research. Well outlined and a must for any manager concerned with business survival following virtually any disaster.

As a business continuity consultant and leader of business continuity seminars, I'm always asked to recommend books that would be helpful in the development and implementation of a disaster recovery/business continuity program. John Laye's "Avoiding Disaster" is one I will heartily recommend - whether the reader is new to this arena or a seasoned professional.

Written from a no-nonsense, real-world perspective, this is a book that everyone involved in business continuity should have readily available to use and to pass along to others in their organizations who need to truly understand what business continuity is all about.