Macroeconomics

"The Oil Factor" is an economic analysis of two parts.

Part 1 evaluates the effect of oil costs upon economic conditions. This analysis has determined that US economy has been a benefactor of low-cost energy, and thus has literally had the fuel for growth.

However, due to the effects of worldwide supply peaking in 2010+/-10, coupled with quickly rising demand (especially from China), the price of oil will soon start on a long uptrend that will create an inflationary cycle possibly a lot worse than the 1970s period.

Part 2 evaluates the effect that an inflationary cycle will have on asset valuations. The authors describe why this cycle will have the effect of driving down equity P/E ratios (from lower profits - the authors detail the reaons for this change). However, they also describe exactly what asset valuations will actually benefit from these changes, and offer specific recommendations of how, why, and when to adjust asset allocations.

The main component for the economic evaluation, and resulting asset protection mechanism is a formula that the authors call "the oil indicator". This indicator is intended to provide a simple and clear "positive signal" or "negative signal", and certain assets should be re-allocated at the time these indicators signal future economic results.

I believe that these authors are absolutely correct on the economics of oil, especially as to future dramatic price rises and the results of high inflation. Also, the resulting investment advice is soundly backed by economic and political analyses.

This book is an easy read, and not technically based. If you are
looking for the statistics underlying the economic analysis of oil you will not find it in this book. Rather, the authors are presenting the big picture of finished analysis.

Investors are strongly advised to read and retain this volume.

There are many excellent books on the approaching peak of oil extraction (by Deffeyes, Heinberg, Goodstein, Youngquist, to name a few), but none of the books on this subject so far addressed the consequences of a permanently declining world oil production for the financial markets. The book under review is the first book to explore this topic in greater detail. In the first part, the book reviews the geological constraints underlying the coming peak of oil production (expected to hit the world within the next 6 years). A review of alternative energy sources (from natural gas and coal to fusion and solar energy) follows ending in the conclusion that no real substitute for oil seem to exist. The authors then explain why the economy needs to grow in the future in order to be able to service the huge debt loads dominating the world economies. Taken together, they conclude that inflation is the inevitable fate of the world economy. In the second part of the book, the authors discuss various investment strategies designed to take advantage of these trends. Overall this is a very important book which should be welcomed by all investors who are concerned about the long term safety of their retirement savings. I see its main value not in the specific portfolio recommendations given in the second part, but in the more general speculations (outlined in the first part of the book) about the forces shaping our economic future. The book is not perfect but I give it 5 stars mainly because this extremely important subject is not discussed in any other investment book. I am quite sure that many more books on this subject will be published in the coming years. This book is the first one in a long series of books to come.

if you were worried about the USA's energy problems you probably should NOT read this book! this is a real wake-up call for our elected officials and for all you SUV drivers out there. the message is pretty simple - we're running out of oil and not doing anything about it!

A good attempt at explaining the costs of living in capitalism. A bit dated considering the World Trade Organization, computerization and downsizing, but he makes points most people need to hear and consider. Well worth reading and thinking about. Order a copy and begin to think!

Ever worry that your doctor has the HMO profit margins in mind more than your care? Ever get disgusted by big time college sports? Ever worry about the erosion of values and cohesion in your community? Then this book is for you.

This is a marvelous book that explores how people should think about their places in our society. Schwartz, a Professor at Swarthmore College, has a well-deserved reputation for debunking commonly held myths promulgated by economists and others who seek to explain all human behavior by supply and demand curves, and irresistible biological imperatives.

Yes, we do have a choice about how we want our communities to function, and Schwartz tells us how we can ``reintroduce the language of responsibility and morality into our public life.''

Schwartz also has a rare gift for making complex topics seem easy to understand. This is a surprisingly readable book, full of anecdotes and examples that will help you relate the ideas to your own life. Its conclusion, about a dilemma Schwartz faced in his own community, is notable for its drama as well as for the fact that Schwartz declines to offer easy answers.

Read this book, and you will think differently (and more perceptively) about the world around you. It is *that* good.

Read this book if you have ever been concerned about how some of our societies great institutions are being weakened by the market pressures of today. Ever worry that your doctor has the HMO profit margins in mind more than your care? Ever get disgusted by big time college sports? Ever worry about the erosion of values and cohesion in your community? Then this book is for you.

I read this book in a graduate class on globalization. The word ¡®progressive¡¯ in the title refers to the perspective of political economy ie, not the one of neoclassical or neo-liberalist. Arguments from economists, in particular political economists on globalization are somewhat hard to see. Authors focused on side effects of globalization. Their perspectives vary but they can be labeled as the view of ¡®race to the bottom¡¯ against optimistic views of neo-liberalist. It¡¯s interesting to see what should be done against hard economic trend, globalization from the perspective of losers not winners. And this book has wide coverage from IMF, World Bank to TNCs, Global financial market, inequality. But I should point out some weakness of the book.
1. They doesn¡¯t offer any explanation on what caused the globalization at all. Globalization is presented as mere background to draw their conclusions. Some Marxist schools explained the process of globalization in terms of the diminishing rate of profit. But this book lacks such logics. I think the purpose of this book, offering alternative policy to speed down the process of globalization, drove authors in that direction.
2. My major is not economics but economic sociology. So I had some difficulties to follow all lines of the economists. But it¡¯s not wholly my fault. I have had no such difficulty with economic journals like The Economist. The explanation of economic phenomena which are mainly macroeconomic one, is not kind to reader. I think authors assumed that this book would be read by expert policy makers not by mundane students.

In this excellent collection, 37 contributors from around the world study the World Bank, the IMF, the multinational corporations, movements of capital, goods and labour, and the possibilities of national economic renewal. David Felix points out that the financial liberalisation of recent decades has led to slower growth of output, investment and productivity. Mehrene Larudee observes that Mexico, for instance, grew 6% a year with the industrialisation and protectionist policies of 1951-81; when it joined NAFTA, the economy, jobs and wages all shrank. Ha-joon Chang suggests that workers in multinational corporations have a far stronger bargaining position than employers make out. These firms often threaten to move, but rarely do. They have high sunk costs in physical plant, infrastructure, subcontracted production networks and services, skilled workers, local knowledge. Workers can take control of our workplaces, industries and countries. We can impose capital controls and reinvest the wealth we create in productive industry. 'Globalisation', like the idea of God, is a ghost to frighten us. Eban Goodstein proves that protecting the environment does not destroy jobs, contrary to employer propaganda. Gregory DeFreitas argues against an open borders policy, while also opposing racial biases in immigration policy. He notes, "emigration represents a subsidy to the receiving country from the nation that trained them, as well as a loss of valuable talents to their homeland."

Arthur McEwan sums up the book's findings: "The neo-liberal regime that is being imposed on the world economy by the Bretton Woods institutions, the US government and other powerful public and private actors is doing a great deal of damage. It is a regime that harms people in all sorts of ways in the name of economic growth, but it does not even do very well at providing economic growth. The reign of neo-liberalism has not come about as some inevitable historical process, but has been actively constructed by the powerful actors that gain from its establishment. Alternatives exist, and the alternatives tend to work better."

Neoliberalism is bankrupt and corrput! This book offers the most sensible near and medium term policy options and solutions that will benefit both humans and nature until Global Capital wakes up to it's REAL responsibilities. The ecoonomic data and analysis exhibit robustness and considerable explanatory power. The prescriptions are excellent recipes for realistic change...

When I recently left my job as cryer in a grim, north-eastern town, I was made the head of recursive macroeconomic theory at a major international bank. I could have done with a simpler introduction than this, to be honest, as my knowledge of RMT was limited. But now I hold my own in meetings simply by spouting a few long words from this book (mainly "macroeconomic" and "recursive" - theory doesn't seem to impress as much) and delegating to underlings.

The first time i read the book, i'm sure this should not be the first text book for Dynamic Macroeconomics everyone should read. It's better to read somewhere else as an introduction to the idea of dynamic macroeconomics. Romer 'Advanced Macroeconomics' and Stokey, Lucas, Prescott 'Recursive Methods' are more appropriate to start. After gainning some similarity with Dynamic Methods, it would be much better to study models about macroeconomics presented in the book.

This book is the presentations of various models using Dynamic / Recursive Macroeconomics. It makes them easier and time-saving to study many kinds of model in a semester. It's GOOD & HELPFUL IN THIS SENSE. However, it might not be a good book for study in depth. You are better to study from the original papers for the same topics.

I think, this book is similar to Tirole 'Theory of Industrial Organization' in spirit, but different in content. They both show the simplified version of various models in the fields.

If you think you like this style, you would like to have it. But if you don't, it might be better just to skim (from the library) and read the original papers.

Hope this comment would be helpful for you to make a decision :)

This is a perfect book for three reasons; i) it is perfect for those who wish to learn modern macroeconomics. The book develops necessary knowledge and tools to be applied to dynamic economics, ii) Sargent is one of most prominent and leading macroeconomists of the world, and he should be Nobel prize winner in Economics, iii) the book is published by MIT.

I find this book very helpful in supplimenting the REALY economics I learn in class. The book uses superfluous language to describe simple mathematical concepts. The book is adequate for a high school class, but no serious Econ student.

Fantastic book !!!!
Really a fun to read because it contains so many real-case examples. I graduated in math and read this book just for my personal interest. I wanted a book on economics that explained all the basic stuff, but at a level that was deep enough to challenge me. And this book gave me what I wanted : I started reading it and couldn 't stop until the end.
A reviewer had the remark that there was a lack of mathematics. It is true that really advanced math is avoided, however that does not make the text less rigorous beause all the concepts are cleary explained by using graphs and very basic algebra.
(If this book was about advanced abstract math itself, I would agree that graphs is not a rigorous way to proof things, but this is a book on economics, though, and it goes rather deep for a basic course)
And if you like more math (as I do in fact), you can easily derive the mathematical explanations straight away from the very clearly written text. What is more important however is the fact that this book really learns you how to think like an economist.

I also very much like the editing style, repeated definitions in the left and right marging, a lot of illustrations, a lot of interesting real life case studies, enough space on each page to make your personal annotations... I wish every textbook was like this ...
This book succeeds very well in explaining clearly with enough rigor the basic principles of economics.

thanks.

This is one of the only texts that uses the inflation rate on the vertical axis of the As-Ad diagram. This is a more modern approach to these curves than the standard approach which
places price level on the vertical axis. Professor Taylor explains Economics in a very clear and interesting way.
It's definitely one of the best Principles books on the market.

The content of Blanchard (3rd edition) may be all very well, but the layout and typography are such a hodgepodge as to be quite distracting and intimidating. The CD is only Windows-compatible, and judging from the description strikes me as rather more a nuisance than an asset (it might have been put in a pocket iside the cover, but no such luck). For a clearer and altogether more pleasant presentation, take a look at Gregory Mankiw's Macroeconomics, 5th edition. A quick check indicated it was perhaps a bit less thorough (Mankiw doesn't mention the problems with non-performing loans in the Japanese banking system; Blanchard does), but one has to draw the line somewhere, and there is something to be said for allowing the instructor a bit more flexibility to introduce examples.

This publication is obviously a quite thought-out textbook and is well-organized in its content. However, I do _not_ recommend it as a review text for those somewhat weak in mathematics. The book is loaded with graphs and equations that might thwart those former students wishing to review their macroeconomics or just desiring a good home reference for same.

For neophytes or those long out of college (30-years-plus in my case), I suggest a good basic "principles of economics" text (and maybe some remedial algebra books and/or classes) before taking on more (relatively) advanced works such as this.

However, the book is nevertheless interesting and actually has quite a few graphs, etc easily understandable by any reasonably intelligent person.

(Note: I own the first edition.) Blanchard has done a great job on his introductory macro book. It is accessible to anyone with basic high school math and no economic prerequisites, yet it manages to develop a consistent macro theory from IS/LM to AS/AD, and much more (basic dynamics, basic expectations, basic international macroeconomics). Indeed there's enough content in it to cover three one-term courses with it, if you do it thoroughly. Of course there are also some weak points: The chapters on growth theory are a bit half-hearted in my opinion (supposedly extended in the second edition!), and I also believe that he should have spent more time on 'the pathologies' (i.e. unemployment and inflation). The historical notes should have better been incorporated into the respective chapters rather than be put in an own chapter on the end. Finally, you should keep in mind that this book only covers the Neoclassical-Keynesian Synthesis (short-run demand-determined, long-run supply-determined, without any microfoundations), but as this is usual macro belief, this really isn't a mistake. If you want to go on, you should refer to David Romer's 'Advanced Macroeconomics' or 'Lectures on Macroeconomics' by Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer. As a first book on macroeconomics, this one is simply great, despite its minor shortcomings. This book has introduced me into the fascinating science of economics.

I rarely write reviews, and as an author myself I'm loath to criticize another's work. But this one I couldn't let go by...

At 147 pages (main text) there was nowhere near enough "meat" to justify ...[the price tag.]

The writing style was boring and pedantic.

Most of the chapters just skimmed the surface and lacked
substance; the topics are covered much more thoroughly by other
authors.

Chapter 6, Networking Technology, at 12 pages, was much too
"thin" and already out of date; less than 2 full pages
were devoted to the 'section' on securing the network -- a
major concern these days.

I have really looked a long time to find a book that has a practical management perspective. Most of the books I've read on virtual teams either focus on bits and bytes (which I don't need since I'm an IT Director) or high level organizational theory. This book had some really practical suggestions that I could implement to improve communication and control for my team.

If you are managing geographically distributed teams this is a "save your life" kind of book. Short and to the point with techniques based on actual research instead of myths or stories. I found the 4 key principles for effective distance communication very helpful. I saw immediate improvement in my team's communications once we began using the ideas.

Mr. Samuelson is most undeniably a great economist, and a great liberal, but from the distant past. As a textbook writer I find him very poor; even irrelevant. He has a way of presenting the subject in a technical/mathmatical way that leaves the reader no better off at all at understanding and discussing the basic economic issues of the day. Besides that he was a remarkably biased teacher/textbook writer. He will perhaps go down in history as the man who said that Russia was a great example of how well a planned economy can perform (even though it really just impoverished its citizens) and that Milton Freidman's work was mistaken (even though it finally became intellectually dominant and was used by the Fed to create the current economic miracle). If you had a choice to spend two semesters plowing through Samuelson or a weekend reading "Capitalism and Freedom" or "Understanding The Difference Between Democrats and Republicans" you'd be wise to pick the later. You'd learn 10 times as much in a fraction the time.

Absolutely easy to read and understand! I never thought I could actually "enjoy" reading about the subject before I came across this book.

I was amazed to discover how good the original edition of Samuelson's classic economics text is. Virtually everything in it is just as relevant today as it was in 1948. Of special interest to me was chapter 10, Personal Finance and Social Security, for the light it sheds on the current debate about retirement income security. I think Samuelson ECONOMICS 1 ed. would be my textbook of choice for a course in introductory economics.

This text was required reading in an Internet marketing class I took. As an about-to-graduate business major, I felt the book often strayed off it's subject matter (e-commerce) and too often went into excrutiating detail about how businesses operate. Although I did not read every chapter, the sections I did read were repetitive and confusing to follow. For example, the concept of "catalog content management" is defined and discussed at least three times in one chapter. To say this book is thorough is an understatement. There are many sections that could have been deleted with no loss of meaning to the subject matter. The book is probably OK for beginning business majors who have yet to take lots of business classes. However, for those who are more familiar with business, you will probably find yourself skimming over this text looking for the information you want. If you're looking for a general overview of e-commerce, this is not the book for you. If you want more detail than you thought existed . . . well, I'm selling my copy in the used book section of this site :)

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I used this book in my ecommerce class and the materials provided is very informative and easy to follow.

It's a great book for first year business students and all those who want to learn something about basic principles of macroeconomics and the influence it has on everyday business activities

In comparison with other macroeconomic texts around it should get 5 stars. It starts with a historical perspective of the crisis in economics at the time of Keynes, setting the picture for why anyone bothered to invent macroeconomics in the first place. It then rapidly proceeds to introduce the major schools of macroeconomics and to develop the relevant ideas and models. It is an ideal introduction for the interested or serious student and manages to be exciting as well as fairly comprehensive. If you're taking an introductory macroeconomics course, get this book instead of your text. If you're coming from outside the economics profession and have a mind of your own, this ones for you.

This is a classic Macro text used for many Intro to Macro-Econ.

I used a similiar text (many editions before) when I took my first econ class in college over 10 yrs ago.

This is a great book, easy to understand and fluid reading.

Thumbs Up!!!