Growth-rates

Social Change on the Head of a Pin

How many theories of social change can fit on the head of a pin and not fall off? As many as can balance.

Are You A Transhuman is essential reading because it presents the concept of multi-tracking in practices a way of living in the world that is on one hand highly technological and, on the other, very compassionate.

This book covers a broad range of transhumanist interests and perceived goals that have affected and will continue affect social change in the coming years. For example, FM-2030 was known for being a highly visionary individual. Because a myopic perspective in the fields of science, technology, and politics did not dogmatize his skills as a writer and lecturer, he could grasp ideas by a larger view.

Transhumans and transhumanism is not just about technology. It is about expanding human understanding and intelligence. This book is a collectable and a must read for anyone interested in the future of humanity.

Natasha Vita-More

As a rabid anti rat. choice and game theorist, I was initially skeptical of this book. But I think it introduces fair ideas in laymen's terms. Now I know my enemy just a little bit better, and he smells like peanut butter.

This was the first book I read that had been put out by the Heritage Foundation. I had been a big doubter of the flat tax, but Mitchells arguments and facts showed me that I was way wrong. He cogently argues that a flat tax is important for the economic well being of our country. HE also looks at other tax plans and shows their flaws and merits. For anyone interested in tax policy, this is a must-read!

This is just an addendum to a review I already wrote; some other reviewers point out that this is not a guide on how to pick stocks, and that is true. I would like to emphasize that the studies of past market behavior described in this book don't seem to point to any reliable method of picking individual stocks, or even evaluating fund managers in any statistically significant manner. This was not a problem for me; the main thrust of the book is that the stock market is the best (only) way to ensure that 'wealth' a) is not gobbled up by inflation and b) has a good chance of appreciating past inflation. With those simple goals in mind, investing in a whole-market index fund with a couple of more focused other index funds doesn't seem like such a bad idea. To really take advantage of the historical perspective offered in this book, it seems very important to keep dollar-cost averaging into these funds even (especially!) during market down times. If your time horizon is long enough, those relatively low-cost purchases will come back in a big way. If you just buy once, you can be sure that after 40 years that purchase will not have lost ground to inflation, but there is no guarantee on the state of the market at the time you need to cash out; to really take advantage of the performance of the market, you must keep buying into it through thick (more or less) but especially thin. In that regard, the secret to financial success is not so much picking x amount of 10-baggers as it is to keep putting money away through all financial conditions that you can manage.

Spend less, save more, and put your savings where they have the best chance to grow.

Siegel's third edition is the best introduction to the traditional assets classes (i.e., stocks and bonds) that I have ever read, hands-down. This book has two strengths: One, it is a rigorous empirical study of historical market returns and their components. Two, it is broad and accessible introduction to various investment theories and styles, economic influences (e.g., inflation, business cycles, economic data) and newer product categories like exchange-traded funds. This is an ambitiously broad anthology chock-full of important topics, so it serves as a great starting point for new students of investment theory. For example, his Chapter on "Gold, the Federal Reserve and Inflation" is a brief, helpful introduction to the history of monetary policy. Another great Chapter is "Market Volatility," which illustrates that market volatility has been remarkably stable over the long run, with some violent exceptions.

What I really love about Siegel is his intent: he wants to educate the average investor and he is not dogmatic. I understand that a handful of negative reviews arise from a credible concern that the stock market could be a lot more hazardous in the future than in the past, but Siegel is not blindly extrapolating into the future. It is pretty unfair to call this "naïve empiricism," by the way. His conclusion is more specific and relative: he believes stocks should outperform bonds, but they will downshift from the long-run historical pattern to outperform bonds by about 2%, give or take.

He reaches this conclusion by showing how the stock market has historically averaged roughly 7% percent in real returns over any long-run stretch. He then presents various alternative valuation models and shares his carefully qualified conclusion: that economic factors justify an modest upward revision in the price-earnings ratio (P-E ratio) to the low 20s, and from that starting point, we might look forward to real equity returns of "4 to 5 percent." Granted, he then goes on to discuss some factors that could well propel returns even higher, and one big unfavorable factor that could send them lower (i.e., the demographic problem of fewer investors in the developed world). But you get to see how his model works, and he serves up each assumption logically and in balanced form so that you can consider the conclusion for yourself. In this vein and offered as a minor critique at the margin, I happen to question his assumption that higher equity valuations per se lead to increased earnings (via cheaper stock offerings and hence cheaper investment capital) because I do not think you can necessarily assume that more capital leads to better investments. Also, he does not address or incorporate the dilution effects of employee stock options.

Similarly, his case for "buy and hold" is balanced. The data in the Chapter on "Stocks and the Business Cycle" could in fact be used to advocate market timing. Siegel shows that successful timing (or more specifically, buying near the bottom) produces impressive returns. He just thinks it is really hard to predict business cycles.

This is the bible of traditional classes, and so I would note that there is no discussion of so-called alternative investments (e.g., hedge fund, private equity, real estates). Also, I missed the lack of an explicit discussion of asset allocation; can we maybe get that in the next edition?

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel is one of the most credible, most astute stock market analysts in the world. He is not a mindless stock cheerleader; in fact, his March 14, 2000 Wall Street Journal article entitled "Why Big Cap Tech Stocks Are a Sucker's Bet" persuasively pointed out how the high tech stock emperor had no clothes, and helped burst the insanely overvalued tech bubble. This was at a time when the vast majority of Wall Street analysts were inventing new valuation methods to justify insane stock prices, while other more pessimistic analysts had declared an "irrational exuberance" years before the market actually topped.

"Stocks for the Long Run" is Siegel's seminal work (now in its third edition), an excellent introduction to investing for the average investor looking to save for retirement. If the SEC were to choose one book to force people to read before they were allowed to invest their money in the stock market, this book would be it. In fact, the people who lost their retirement money because it was all invested in one stock such as Enron or Worldcom (or a bunch of dot-coms), or who lost a fortune day trading when the market tanked, would have been so much better off if they had just read this book and applied its lessons. They would be better off, the market would be much less volatile, the allocation of capital would be more efficient, the economy would be stronger, and the world would be a better place, if only more people would read this book.

"Stocks for the Long Run" gives you all the knowledge you need to implement a solid investment strategy. Siegel educates and informs (this book will teach you all the basics you need to know to watch CNBC and to understand the market), and he packs his book with as much long-term data and supporting evidence as possible. He is a firm believer in the scientific method and data; he does not posit recommendations unless they are firmly supported by historical evidence.

The good news in the third edition (post 1990s/2000 bubble) is that the case for investing in stocks is still a strong one. Siegel presents extremely persuasive arguments why, long term, stocks hold their value and gain value better than any other type of investment (fundamentally, we must never lose sight of the fact that stocks are claims on real assets and the cash flows generated by enterprises). Surprisingly, stocks are lower risk, long-term, than bonds. Siegel presents some good arguments why stocks now deserve a higher-than-long-term-average P/E, but also shows how index investing (which he still heartily recommends) is distorting the market, and how our expectations for returns from stocks need to come down slightly. He correctly identifies TIPS as the best investment for those seeking short-term safety.

Siegel's main argument is that investors should get into stocks in such a way as to match the overall return of the market, which will provide them with a healthy long-term return on investment. He does show a number of ways to improve on that return and beat the market, such as by recognizing when the market is under and overvalued, thereby buying low and selling high. Thus, I would recommend that a new investor first read, study and apply "Stocks in the Long Run", and then move on to Ben Stein's "Yes You Can Time the Market" as a way to optimize the lessons from "Stocks in the Long Run".

This book is not worth beans. Another group of hucksters trying to make a fast buck.

Unfortunately the recent bull market has generated an entire group of would-be financial experts. They write useless books on the subject they have hard time grasping. This book is a good example of a book that can actually hurt you as an investor. Mr. Kazanjian obviously has little or no idea about such things as asset allocation and modern portfolio theory. His bright idea is: "Hey, High Tech is hot, put your money into it!". I wonder what exactly Mr. Kazanjian would tell his readers know, when Nasdaq is down, bull market is over and his readers actually lost money. Complete and utter waste of time.

Don't buy the book for an entertaining read, unless you just enjoy reading about the personal home life and/or chidhood of famous investors. I found that part irrelevent and very boring.

The book is well worth its price, however, for the top ten growth stock picks by each of the five featured investors. That's really the only information of value in the book, but they probably couldn't sell very many copies of a 5-page book, so you're stuck with the filler.