Future Books

"We may well be grateful to Brown for this book on the condition of mankind as it appears to an erudite, clear-sighted, critically appraisng scientist...the latest phase of technical-scientific progress, with its fantastic increase of population, has created a situation fraught with problems of hitherto unknown dimensions, this objective work is of high value." Also recommended by Supreme Court Justice William Douglas, this is an early and still highly valuable contribution to "future shock"-type planning and anticipation, hmmm, hum a few bars.

This book is a good example of the kind of writing more common in times past, where the author assumes the intelligence of his readers along with their interest in the subject and doesn't try to entertain them with humor. Not a page is wasted in assessing the future prospect of mankind as seen from 1954 and Brown is careful to explain his reasoning and how he arrives at his figures at all times. No wonder Albert Einstein endorses the book on the back cover of my paperback edition.

You will be surprised by some of the predictions, the accuracy of some and the inaccuracy of others, but you won't be bored. Each page made me eager to read more. This author is not simply spouting opinions.

The limits on resources are examined comprehensively, not just those most commonly found such as iron ore and coal but even the more unusual ones such as magnesium. The author makes no apology for advocating population control through birth control by looking at man's situation from the standpoint of a biological population that will be controlled by nature if the species does not act to control itself. His estimate of world population for the year 2000 is about a billion less than it has turned out to be. Brown wrote before anyone knew of the possibilities opened up by genetic engineering, so his concerns about the physical degradation of humanity from the failure of natural selection are, I believe, moot, when it looks like genetic problems will at some point be "curable" or eliminated through genetic modification.

Environmental degradation is mentioned but by no means emphasized. In the discussion of food supplies it is suggested that carbon dioxide might be deliberately increased in the atmosphere (to the point of doubling it) in order to increase the growth of plants! The greenhouse effect is never mentioned. Interestingly, Brown speaks of the amount of coal that would have to be burned to double atmospheric carbon dioxide as an astronomical figure of 500 billion tons, "more than man has consumed up to now". I checked current statistics on coal consumption and the world is now using 1% of that amount every year. What irony that we are unintentionally doing what those in the past thought might be a good idea but that we now know is not.

Solar energy is mentioned as a future hope. Since only thermocouples are brought up, photovoltaic solar cells appear to be a later development. Wind power is only mentioned in passing. Nuclear power is said to offer potential but as no commercial nuclear power plants were built at the time, the assessment is encouraging but speaks mainly in terms of the availability of uranium ore.

Nuclear war was a serious prospect in those early days of Soviet - American confrontation. The author feels that the odds are in favor of an agrarian civilization in the future due to advanced civilization succumbing to devastating war. Again, this book came before the concept of nuclear winter was developed which questions the ability of agriculture to continue after a war with atomic weapons.

A few charts and graphs are provided, one of which shows that the United States was far more the leader of consumption in the world of the 1950's than it is now. The point can easily be made that Americans have used a substantial portion of the resources of the earth, something to be kept in mind when the argument is heard that the United States should do nothing to conserve until other nations do too.

As an elementary school pupil just after this book was written, I recall a mention of resource limits in a textbook. But since that time until relatively recently the whole subject seemed to drop beneath notice. This book is proof that there were thoughtful folks decades ago who recognized many of the challenges that were to come in the basic problem of resource consumption and population. Brown's book is by no means hysterical or even excited; he simply tries to look at known facts and project them into the future, something that unfortunately has been little practiced in the years that followed.

Looking back on the book now, it's clear that steps could have been taken to ease the situation that presses upon us now. Unfortunately, little happened with the general public. Though business has pursued efficiency of production as a matter of course, we still have ended up waiting for high prices to force an issue that foresight could have helped us avoid. Harrison Brown made the effort to inform the public with this excellent book.

I reread this book 35 years after college. It reveals amazing insight. Brown said in the 50's that we would pretty much go down the tubes when our resources ran out unless citizens of the world act intelligently together. So far, we have ignored his warnings and pursued narrow self-interest with great zeal. Though he did not anticipate the information revolution, he still could be right that a depleted world will one day support only a limited population living an agrarian lifestyle.
(You can read all his conclusions in the last 15 pages)

This book is full of contents while it is easily understandable and fun. After reading this book, you'll have images of China in the futures in your mind that help you plan your busines strategies pretty well. Therefore, those who want to set up a firm in China are highly suggested to read it.

I have lost count of how many books and articles I have read on the past, present and future of China. Without doubt, this is the most readable, the most concise and the most word-economical of any.

The authors claim no special knowledge of China but apply general scenario techniques to the situation and come up with sensible and understandable alternative futures.

As a side benefit, the book contains a lot of socio-economic data.

My only complaint..I find the conclusions slightly pessimistic but can't fault the logic of reaching them

China is the world's third largest economy and America's biggest trading partner in Asia. The path China takes over the coming decades will have a profound impact on business and the economy all around the world. The authors of this book are neither futurists nor experts on China, but practitioners of the art of scenario planning.

In this book, Ogilvy and Schwartz draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China. They present three versions of what China's future might look like and what that will mean for the governments and companies that will be doing business with or in China. Their scenarios are in an absorbing narrative form, like histories written twenty years from now. They explain the predetermined elements, assumptions, and variables that underlie each scenario. They also draw implications and make suggestions about how companies can use each scenario to plan business strategy.

The insights into China's future provided in this book will help global business managers, strategists, diplomats and government policy makers prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.

James A. Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz (1946- ) are partners in Global Business Network, a consulting and research firm. They are responsible for the widespread use of scenario planning in business, a process-blending research, trend analysis and well-tutored imagination-that they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View. Joe Flower is a professional writer in San Francisco.

See also my review of THE NEW SILK ROAD: Secrets of Doing Business in China Today by John B. Stuttard.

A must have for anyone interested in Bone and Soft Tissue Pathology. I'm not sure when the new edition is coming out, though. You may want to look into that.

Dear Sirs,

I have returned the book "Pathology and genetics of tumors of the soft tissues and bones" because I have already bought by amazon.com in my other account (vencio56@hotmail.com). My mistake.

The book is very good (5 stars).
Sincerely,
Eneida Franco Vencio

This is a great book to review bone and soft tissue tumor.

I first read this book in 1982 when its optimism seemed questionable, if not preposterous. Now, almost 20 years later, through good (then) and bad (now) administrations, Kahn's predictions proved astonishingly accurate. They contrast markedly and tellingly with the gloom and doom pronounced by a lot of people who are still around and still misstating the present and future (did you hear that Al?). Herman Kahn is said to have achieved the highest score ever on military standardized tests during his youth in the 1940's and he was undoubtedly one of the few American geniuses of my lifetime. The Hudson Institute lives on as his legacy, but it has never quite lived up to his own level of excellence. The great reason to look for a copy of this book long out of print is to consider the premises and rationale and compare them to the prognostications from the greens and others on the left. No one can tell the future and probably few if any even approach the intellectual prowress of a Herman Kahn, but a review of the methodology of genius (and that of the chicken littles) ought to go a long way in defining where to place our trust and where to assign our skepticism.

I too read this book in 1982 and from time to time have thought about it over the years. Now in the year 2000 I find myself fairly stunned at how accurately Kahn predicted the future. Books about the future were common in the 70's and 80's, Future Shock, Club of Rome, Greening of America and so on, but none so clearly predicted the world we have today.

Mr. Kerwick has said it better than I can. If the book is out of print, try looking in zShops, there is a copy of it there now.

I have a first printing of this book which I first read in 1982. I recently decided to reread it to better understand how Herman Kahn's pioneering work on scenario development had held up over time. Based on understanding where it had worked well, I wanted to get insights into how to repeat his process.

Well, was I in for a surprise!

When I first read the book, I was overwhelmed by its optimism . . . coming on the heels the "Stagflation" following the Oil Shock in the 1970s. At that time, the stock market was about to make a major bottom, having fallen well below the highs of both 1966 and 1973. Treasury bonds were yielding 15 percent. Inflation was romping, and the economy wasn't. President Reagan had just been elected and taxes had been cut, but it hadn't seemed to help yet.

Since then, we have enjoyed an unprecedented prosperity with only one brief recession in 18 years. Yes, Mr. Kahn got it right.

But what was astonishing was to read his specific predictions. For example, his description of future computer networks matches what we do on the Internet today very well. His descriptions of a worldwide plunge in adult female fertility in economically advanced countries were right on. His thoughts about government policy, how to fight inflation, and social adjustments that would help reduce inflation were all highly accurate.

How did he do this? Well, he used a combination of examining long-term trends (usually over centuries), determining the causes of these trends, and then considering scenarios for areas where individual action could make a difference. Most impressive.

For those who like Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s work (and I count myself among that group), Herman Kahn's book will be an important extension of that thinking.

Since Kahn used so many long-term causes in his thinking, the observations stand today. You just have to extend them a little more into the future on your own, now that Mr. Kahn is no longer with us.

I hope that his publishers will consider having someone do a new edition of this book that puts the track record beside the original, and thoughtfully extends the book into the next 20 years. It would be a most valuable resource.

Where else do we miss the big picture by looking at the ripples on the lake rather than the lake itself?

Identify and go with the irresistible forces!

I was a student in Dr. Mellander's doctoral seminar on Community Colleges. This was one of the textbooks we used. It is
well written, concise and prag,matic. Very useful.

All who work at a comunity college are important in achieving the college's mission. But it is the president who set the vison and provides the leadership. If he or she is weak and fails in any fashion the college, the students and the community suffer.

What are the characteristics of a good president? How do they monitor themselves? Are they born leaders or do they train themselves. What are the main demographic characteristics of presidents? What majors did most college presidents pursue in college? What is the average compensation and term of office? What role do their spouses assume at the college? Finally what does a panel of successful presidents see happening in the years ahead?

All of these questions and more are answered in this clearly written book. It is a useful resource for those interested in a career in administration, in learning more about college presidents or just in being better informed.

Good, factual, useful for those interested in studying the community college presidency. Published by the American Association of Community Colleges.
What do presidents do, how did they become presidents? etc. What implicit advice can one glean?
Also has a useful section on the future of community colleges and their presidents as seen by successful presidents.
Sound academic research but presented in layperson terms.

Lori Silverman is perhaps ahead of her time a few years with her organizational design and development insights. The book contains much information you can use right now, successfully, to develop organizations with quality and integrity.

Critical SHIFT is about as user friendly as a book can get. I can FIND things in here...and they are useful things that help me identify trends, understand my environment and take effective action.

I recommend Critical SHIFT to those who want to hit the ground running. No one subject takes forever to read. I can grab what I need and move on. I have already used pieces of Lori's value management approach in our strategic planning process. I plan to use more.

"Oh, no not another program!" "Don't use the "q" word around here!" There always seems to be something different, but quality has philosophically remained solid. Critical Shift describes the shifts that quality has made over the years and emphasizes the critical trends that face organizational and lifestyle issues in the future. Are you doing quality if you are using benchmarking strategies, mass customization, reengineering, environmental audits? The Starburst Model offers an integrative and multidimensional view of how organizations evolve and work toward high performance. For the practioner, this book is highly useful. Tools and strategies needed at various levels are described along with worksheets and questions for inner exploration. Critical Shift is a very fine combination of thought-provoking reading as well as hands-on application. Great job, Lori and Beth!

While most people are preoccupied with immediate daily concerns, Allen Tough, a Professor of Futuristics at the University of Toronto, in his book "Crucial Questions about the Future" reminds us of some critical issues. Tough points out that we need to think and rethink what we consider of supreme value in the future, the relation of human civilization with future, the dialectics embedded in our current human civilization, the possible outcomes of human civilization, ways to unleash constructive and transformational forces while harnessing the destructive ones, and what each individual can contribute at the daily micro level.

What Tough concerns most with future is human civilization-- a process of "diversity of cultures, organizations, beliefs, world views, values, music, architecture, environments, capacities, and lift-styles (p. 1)," which he assumes to be a shared anthropocentric consensus and based on what majority of human beings would construct their meaning and purposes. He points out that human civilization encompasses simultaneously positive forces toward happy flourishes and negative forces toward total catastrophes. Even more, "at this peculiar moment in human history, our two extreme potentials ... may both be vaster then at any time during the past 10,000 years (p.1)." Tough believes by rethinking carefully of what we think is most important of all and looking four decades ahead, people can effective avoid a myopic perspective and reorient ourselves toward importance of continued flourishing of human civilization. However, there is an array of micro and macro forces which has caused the society as a whole to choose priorities and actions that reduce the chance for a positive future (p. 25-31). The development of human civilization has been destructively threatened. For example, some countries rather expend military spending than on their nationals; people look for immediate interests and never realize what they do will greatly affect the next 40 years; and merchants consider their own benefits better than anything else. Some people destroy environment and destruct nature of human civilization at any cost only for profit gaining. Why there are so many such people around the world? Tough's answer is people rarely think about future or do not care about future.

If uncontrolled, Tough argues, these forces can lead to the total vanish of human species but also other forms of life on the planet. However, instead of being determined, Tough believes human beings do have the capacity to reduce or offset destructive forces. Therefore, he encourages us to increase awareness and understanding of what actually we can do to prevent catastrophes and enhance well-being. In other words, he tends to think the future of human civilization is more a matter of choice and a continuation of titanic struggle. What outcomes would actually happen will be determined more by what human being would prioritize to be achieved and by what strategies and actions they would eventually take. For example, in order to create a positive and sustainable developed future, he also proposes ten long-term priority goals for human civilization which include: increasing proportion of the population having adequate basic necessities, ensuring care of children, increasing knowledge of the universe, increasing learning opportunities and wisdom, widespread freedoms, eliminate second-class citizens, improvements in human well-being, developed ethical and moral principles, maximize gains from new technologies, and achieving contact with other intelligent life (p. 65-66).

Tough considers enlightened knowledge, awareness, and actions are critical not only to the sustainability and further development of human civilization but also an integrated cosmos project of the continuing development of intelligent life and culture. Tough argues that this is a project that everyone can contribute to. He encourages each of us to face our inner personal process (inner work) and see what we can do (outer work) by clarifying values and setting priorities. He outlines five priorities to achieve a satisfactory future: (1) expand knowledge and ideas about problems, solutions, and the future; (2)help people care the future and make changes; (3) improve planning and governance, and adopt long-term perspective; (4) avoid catastrophes; and (5) foster positive improvements (p. 50-64).

Basically, I agree with what Tough has outlined in his book. While some has criticized Tough for being over-anthropocentric, I tend to consider he rightfully point out what the responsibilities human being have for the future not only of their own but also of other species. In today's world, many people are looking only for immediate interests, lack foresight for the future, and never realize what their behavior will greatly affect the next generation and, not to mention, other species. In a world of trivializing, Tough's book reorients us to rethink carefully of what are most important at all and provides scientific foundations for positive social changes. In sum, this book makes a significant contribution to the development of a blueprint for a positive future.

Allen Tough writes a compelling and fascinating blueprint for saving the future of mankind in "Crucial Questions About the Future." Whether you are reading this book for a class or for yourself, the questions raised inside will tumble around inside your head long after you have read the words on the page. I believe this book should be read by every high school graduating class. We need to get the next generation thinking about answers to these questions before they are already out in the world potentially screwing it up! The three main things that impressed me the most in this book are: 1. Dr. Tough challenges us to believe in life outside our planet and to deal with the possible consequences before such a discovery. 2. We are encouraged to think far enough into the future that we lose the immediate gratification problem that can be so detrimental to our world, but not so far as to force us to lose focus on the issues because we assume we'll probably be dead by then. And 3. One man can indeed make a difference. I heartily recommend this book.

Dr. Allen Tough's "Crucial Questions About the Future" is a cogent and engaging book that at once introduces beginners to futurology and expands the perspective of established scholars in the field. Although filled with interesting anecdotes and examples, this book goes beyond mere linear extrapolation and "gee whiz" technology to get at the heart of humankind's future. After explaining the value of futurology, Dr. Tough provides us with a conceptual framework for futures studies; offers some simple but plausible methods for increasing the accuracy of our predictions; and explores such compelling issues as preventing catastrophes, the discovery of intelligent extraterrestrial life, and sustaining meaning and purpose in an increasingly fast-paced technological civilization. Although "Crucial Questions About the Future" is well-researched and authoritative, Tough offers us guidance, not admonition, and he reminds us that futurology, like everything else, must be approached with a touch of humility. "Crucial Questions" has helped guide my thinking about several of the issues that confront us in the world of today as well as my writing on the world of tomorrow. His book is a great introduction for readers who wonder about tomorrow, but seek an exposition that goes beyond hype and glitz.

I read this 1986 novel in the '90s and it was hard to put down -the dialogue races and the characters draw you into their world.
After doubts emerged about the official story about the 9/11 attacks, I realized that Dr. Campbell's novel perhaps foretold how something like 9/11 could happen -in spite of the Strategic Air Command and other hi-tech protections against such things.

Dr. Campbell novel doesn't just dissect how things like this can happen, it suggests how citizens can assert control over their govenment so that they can't. From the original book jacket:

"Frightened and outraged by nuclear terrorists, Americans demand harsh action. REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS FOR A STRONG AMERICA becomes the dominant political party by promising to root out every enemy.

"But who controls the Party? And what are their plans for the U.S. once they control the media and the Government?

"Noel is too caught up in his loves and ambitions to pay much attention to the ominous changes, until they threaten his family. A woman and a network of neighborhoods hold the keys that may save them from the sinister powers behind the Strong America Party."

I highly recommend this book!

I read this 1986 novel in the '90s and it was hard to put down -the dialogue races and the characters draw you into their world.

After doubts emerged about the official story about the 9/11 attacks, I realized that Dr. Campbell's novel perhaps foretold how something like 9/11 could happen -in spite of the Strategic Air Command and other hi-tech protections against such things.

Dr. Campbell novel doesn't just dissect how things like this can happen, it suggests how citizens can assert control over their govenment so that they can't. From the original book jacket:

"Frightened and outraged by nuclear terrorists, Americans demand harsh action. REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS FOR A STRONG AMERICA becomes the dominant political party by promising to root out every enemy.

"But who controls the Party? And what are their plans for the U.S. once they control the media and the Government?

"Noel is too caught up in his loves and ambitions to pay much attention to the ominous changes, until they threaten his family. A woman and a network of neighborhoods hold the keys that may save them from the sinister powers behind the Strong America Party."

I highly recommend this book!

This book is an excellent page turner. the story just flows and draws you in, and before you know it the book is over and hours have passed. but the hours are well spent, as the book presents the author's philosiphies of Direct Democracy in an entertaining medium. Support smaller authors and buy this book!!!

An interesting and insightful book. For anyone interested in their financial future, this is a must read. Gives quite a history of money and the depresssion and how to avoid financial problems in the future.

When I read 'Depression Proof Your Future' I realized it was a good primer for the general public to learn about financial and economic cycles and problems. Since this is an area I've not studied at all, it was an interesting overview of the story of economic downturns and problems. I am far more familiar with investing principles and financial management and Professor Horatio has some excellent strategies for getting out of debt, paring expenses, learning to be self-sufficient, and acquiring wealth. He's packed a lot of information into this slim volume, and the wise reader would do well to read this book several times in order to learn all the details offered. It's never too late to take control of your own financial affairs.

Depression Proof Your Future is a survival manual for the common man and a must-read for all in these troubled times. It should be given wide publicity because it is a clear exposition of steps we can take personally in order to safeguard ourselves in the event of devastating downturns in our economy. This book provides survival guidelines by carefully and lucidly drawing on both ancient and recent history of former economic collapses as well as drawing on economic theory to reach clear and compelling recommendations for the common man. It is written so well that it should become part of the general education of all people who need to demystify the pronouncements of the high priests of politics and economics. The book removes the mystery of economic cycles, currency, devaluation, inflation, and deflation through an effective use of examples that clearly depict the history of money, the actions of politicians and their capitalist allies responsible for the inevitable cycles of boom and bust, and ways in which the common man can survive the hard times ahead. Other themes explored include how our economy works, how to cope with runaway inflation, and the energy crunch.

I strongly urge reading of this powerful survival manual for the common man.

This short and simple book provides eleven exercises which will direct you to the "Royal Road" - the life you are meant to lead. The steps are obvious after you read them, and the exercises help you achieve in real life where other books don't. I highly recommend this book

Finally,skillfully woven information clearly stating the "how to" steps required to reach understanding and freedom from negativity. It works. I highly recommend this book to anyone who has ever suffered.

Everyone I want you to know this book changed my whole life! It helped me look through my problems and to change how I saw things so that I could be more aware and take my inner strength not make the same old mistakes I have been making time and time again! It showed me the inner personal power I had and I turned my whole life around! I live in a nice house now with a pool. I am involved and married to a great person. And I finally have a stock market account with a great job nice house good relationships with family and friends. I am honestly finally happy.