Future-value

A great book.

I have also bought his other book, The Valuation of Technology - Business and Financial Issues in R&D. Again, full of practical insights that are not available elsewhere.

I fail to understand the scathing review of the reader from Norway. Was this person expecting to learn about financial options, instead of real options, from this book? In that case, it was the reader's mistake for picking the wrong book! For real options, this book has no peer. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to apply the real options theory to real-world problems.

Thanks Dr. Boer for a job well done and for making a real contribution to realistic valuation and pricing of business opportunities.

F.P.Boer, in the first section of this book, successfully achieves a discussion of value and its components that will satisfy anyone wishing to understand how to perform a calculation of the value of a real option, detailing what data would be required, how to build this into a total value caluclation etc. Yet the use of only a limited number of diagrams and numerical examples makes this book accessible to all, not just those interested in a text book approach, without in any way compromising the content or quality of the material provided. In the second section several topics are discussed, with numerous examples both contemporary and from history, including 1) risk, it's upside as well as downside potential and the treatment of different types of risk in valuations, 2) intellectual capital, what is and how it could be valued and 3) innovation and why this is essential to future value creation, with all issues discussed adding an important dimension to this very practical guide to value.

I rate this book so highly, not because it provides THE answers but because Ostroff asks what I consider to be the important questions as all of us proceed into an uncertain future. There are so many paradigm shifts occurring simultaneously. Words such as "organization" and "customer" seem to be redefined constantly, as are the concepts of "leader" and "manager" as well as "core business" and "competitive marketplace." Of course, despite what his book's subtitle suggests, Ostroff is well aware of all this. He thinks clearly, writes well, and in his concluding remarks indicates a proper respect for "buy in" throughout any organization., asserting that "the change effort itself and the new organization born from the old must have full top-down, bottom-up, cross-functional commitment. If done right, the integration of the fundamental principles of the horizontal organization will inspire the people in your organization, supercharge their performance, and create a winning value proposition that lifts your organization far above the competition."

The much advertised "new distinctive investment approach", the so called "Generalized Sharpe Rule" is a rather naive treatment on classical risk/return analysis. However, the lack of mathematical rigour is well compensated with good references.

The word Co-creation will get included in your daily vocabulary sooner than you expect. Lots of diagrams and case studies are thrown into every chapter. But frankly, there is no concept that is radically different from some of the pioneering works on similar topics already published. To list a few :

-Customer.Com by Particia Seybold
-How to Grow when Markets Don't by Adrian Slywotzky
-The Innovator's solution by Clayton Christensen
-Adapt or Die : Turning your Supply Chain into an Adaptive Business Network by Bob Betts , Claus Heinrich
-Experimentation Matters: Unlocking the Potential of New Technologies for Innovation by Stephen Thomke
-Priceless: Turning Ordinary Products into Extraordinary Experiences by Diana Lasalle, Terry A. Britton
-The Agenda: What Every Business must do to Dominate the Decade by Michael Hammer

Most of the case studies in this book are repetitions from these or are similar in concepts or processes in creating value for ( or along with) the customer. The authors have duly acknowledged and referred to an elaborate list of books and articles under "Aids to Exploration". But my point is that after going through some of the key works listed above, this book fails to impress on originality.

Towards the end of the book, Knowledge Management is brought in as one of the strategic tools that can be integrated into the co-creation framework.

It is certainly interesting to go through the book though it is a combination of old ideas in a new packaging. Young MBAs will find lots of new jargon that can be put to profitable use in job interviews.

These two authors show how a business can differentiate itself and offer a substantial value added. By delivering superior goods and services, these will not be subject to commodity pricing anymore, and will reward their respective companies with premium pricing, higher ROE, and higher shareholder value.

The value added comes from involving the customer in co-designing the product he wants, and servicing the product with the customer's ongoing online feedback. The author gives several examples of companies that are using these practices of the future today. Sumerset Houseboats, a houseboat construction company, actively engages its customers in the boat designing process. Deere, the farming equipment manufacturer, has developed a GPS system that monitors and diagnoses farming equipment usage and equipment problems by its farming customers.

There is no question that such intense customer centric practices represent substantial competitive edges. The companies that can innovate and deliver such services at a profit will become the winners of tomorrow.

Imagine if nowadays you could truly benefit of such troubleshooting services on your home PC. Offsite, the computer manufacturer would monitor that the latest virus, bugs, spyware have not infected your system. If it did, it would clean up your system automatically and restore it to health. Would not you think that such a PC would be worth a 100% mark up over the current commoditized PC that typically falls apart within months after being attacked endlessly by bugs.

The type of co-created added value the two authors talk about is the best step forward in protecting the U.S. technological lead going forward. The companies that do that well will survive and thrive. The ones who do not will see their products being taken away by lower cost competitors delivering the same commoditized products utilizing Chinese manufacturing and Indian programming. Given that the two professors are of Indian origins, no one can argue they did not give us a fair warning.

This book is well written and very innovative. If you are an entrepreneur, business strategist, business consultant, MBA student or professor, this is a must read. If you are none of those, it is still a very interesting and important book showing a good roadmap on how the U.S. can maintain its technological leadership.

Contrary to what that reader from Dallas argues, the book actually meets and exceeds the premise and objectives it sets for itself. Let me highlight some of these:
"This book sets the agenda for top management for co-creating the future."
"Our task is here to 'amplify weak signals' from a diversity of institutions, industries, and countries, and to represent readers with a new frame of reference for value creation."
"While we do not suggest a revolution, we do see wide departures from traditional ways of sensing, thinking, and doing."
"Throughout this book, we use a lot of examples as thinking props to convey our perspective and key ideas, not to illustrate best practices."

Given all these disclaimers, it is not fair to criticize a book for not being what it never claims to be in the first place. I advise the readers to carefully read the preface before considering buying or reading the book. If you determine you fit the profile of the intended readers and engage the book with the right mind set, you will be well rewarded with your investment.

After trading for 11 years and writing three books on the subject I can only say that I am not impressed with this strategy and anyone who promotes it as an alternative to technical analysis.

Glyn Holton's mathematical background and experience as practising risk managemer and consultant is thoroughly reflected in character of this book. The notation is consistent and logical, the mathematical/theoretical presentation is rigorous but accessible to pretty much all the intermediate/advanced undergrad students.

The emphasis is on the methodological process of building a model rather than directly presenting the final product itself. This is in contrast to most of the Value-at-Risk books on the markets which up to this point, have been written mainly by academics (University professors) rather than practitioners.

Throughout the book, Mr. Holton keeps emphasizing the duality of VaR metrics in terms of the exposure and the uncertainty of its underlying portfolio. And using the conceptual differences of these two components of risk as starting point, the relevant mathematical, probabilistic, and statistical background material are presented. For the exposure component of risk, Holton presented the mathemcatical mapping procedure; while for the uncertainty component, the conditional distribution characteristization of the risk factors are thoroughly investigated. This 'Bottom-up' analytical approach breaks down the VaR metrics into its 'atomical' parts. From there the VaR measure is methodologically built from the ground up. As result all the VaR models are presented under a uniform theoretical umbrella. This is in contrast with a 'disjointed list of VaR models' approach taken by most of the available literature up to this point. The result is a book suitable for beginners and advanced practitioners alike. Well done Glyn.

She might well be a nice person. There are probably 10,000 people in my city who are as nice and as moral but nobody pays them to write a book. Just another celebrity worship book.