Forecasting

This book is a superbly crafted examination of the major problems facing America (and thus, the world) today.More importantly, it proposes solutions to these problems. Governmental & institutional policies to implement these solutions is critically important, as Mr. Daleiden shows in his opening pages with two scenarios of the U. S. in the year 2050. Not afraid to take controversial stands, the author forcefully & cogently argues with those who would maintain the status quo in our current policies towards such areas as immigration & population, crime, education, taxes, poverty & welfare, the environment, trade and deficits. The book is an easy read yet exceptionally informative and comprehensive. This is an important study and one can only hope that its influence is felt soon. Mr. Daleiden understands that the problems he points to WILL be resolved. But as he shows, whether they are resolved by reasoned thought or by desperation measures is uncertain.

In the American Dream, Mr. Daleiden takes a holististic view of the forces affecting the economy. His analysis includes areas that most economists will not consider for political (or maybe "politically correct") reasons. The analysis of the long term affects of mass immigration is noteably insiteful and courageous. Mr. Daleiden thinks in different terms and courageously follows his conclusions where ever they take him. I found his unfettered reasoning to be refreshing. As a futurist, I recommend this volume to anybody who wants to get the whole story on future econ/political trends. This holistic/diverse forecasting process is especially relavant to my fellow futurists and our politically hobbled economists.

As one of the editors of this book, I take pride in its nuanced approach to contemporary issues in U.S. public policy. Mr. Daleiden is unpartisan in that he analyzes issues on the basis of an unpartisan political philosophy derived from his prior book THE SCIENCE OF MORALITY, and in the context of the best available data, regardless of the extent to which this data might be distastful to partisans of particular causes. An excellent example of this, inserted in the book after I had edited it, is his analysis of the recently published study of gun laws by J. Lott Jr. and D.Mustard, which argued that if citizens are allowed to carry concealed weapons, crime will be less than would otherwise so, ie. with laws against conceal and carry. Instead of the blanket endorsement or dismissal which we regularly get from the ideologues, Mr. Daleiden shows us some methodological limitations of this study. However, he proceeds to give it its due as a contribution to the debate, particularly with respect to data suggesting a need for further research into the relationship between gun ownership and crime. Another example of his unpartisan approach is his analysis of the immigration issue. Rather than acquiesce in the spurious dichotomy implied by the question, "should we or should we not allow immigration?", he analyzes the implications of various levels of immigration for our demographic prospects. One need not agree with all of his priorities (eg. as regards income distribution) in order to suspect that there is some limit on the ability of this society to absorb massive immigration without producing an intolerable rise in crime. In any case, he devotes over 100 pages to population policy analysis, a major contribution to an overlooked subject. As a whole, the book is a model of the sort of approach too often absent in contemporary public debate.

Karl Albrecht wrote this book for executives who want to implement a formal system for collecting strategic data. The book appears to present a scientific method, but it actually provides a collection of subjective tools or scans. An executive needs these scans to track the forces that shape business. This collection of subjective tools makes the book valuable. If you follow the author's system, you will be aware of or anticipate most events that have a potential impact on your business. The book is written in a very straightforward, direct style. The author uses contemporary examples to amplify his message. We at getAbstract recommend this book to executives, managers and change agents in medium to large companies.

In the Preface, Albrecht explains that he has "evolved a relatively simple model for managing the daunting intellectual challenges involved in [a careful and thoughtful study of the business environment]. By conceiving of [that] environment in terms of eight figurative sectors, in which events and trends are acting to shape the options open to the firm, we can describe and think about at work there."

During the 14 chapters which comprise the book, Albrecht provides a cohesive and comprehensive "framework for learning the lessons the business environment has to teach; for getting useful insights into the structure and dynamics of a particular business sector, and for integrating a wide range of discoveries, findings, and conclusions into a unified tapestry."

It is important to keep in mind that, both literally and metaphorically, radar is merely a means by which to recognize and perhaps measure certain objects. It does not have unlimited capabilities. So-called "stealth technology" permits a number of strategies and initiatives which can preclude detection by radar. All organizations (regardless of size or nature) have information needs within these "basic environments": Customer, Competitor, Economic, Technological, Social, Political, Legal, and Geophysical. With timely and accurate information, an organization can more effectively "track the forces" that are shaping it.

Because change is the only constant, those forces are certain to change; the nature and extent of information needed concerning the "basic environments" will also change. Hence the importance of having a system which can accommodate such change, preferably anticipating change (eg paradigm shifts) but at least enabling a rapid response to it. Albrecht explains his "model." He then provides expert advice on how to devise a system which is most appropriate to the information needs of a given organization; finally, he includes step-by-step guidance during the implementation of that system.

For executives within organizations in need of such a system, this is a "must read."

Albrecht has written about environmental scanning in "The Northbound Train" (AMACOM, 1994) in which he focused on vision, strategy and values. In this work he explores the scanning process and creates a conceptual breakdown of the environment into eight critical sub-environments. These are: customers, competitors, economy, technology, society, politics, law, and geophysical.

These environmental sectors are different for each organization and need to be defined. He stresses the interconnectiveness of these sectors; many key phenomena cut across their boundaries, which are artificial. The value of dividing the environment into sectors is only to facilitate the process of analysis.

The author begins with a discussion of the environmental scan, an examination of the new realities of business today and Toffler's Third Wave, and provides insights on how to think like a futurist. The remaining chapters explore each of the eight sub-environments (strategic radar screens) to glean what can be useful in growing a successful enterprise.

The final chapter focuses on the issue of thinking strategically, as well as paying attention to immediate priorities (the author dubs this bifocal vision). This chapter examines how to extract and share meaning from the messages received from scanning, resulting in a document-the Basic Annual Strategic Estimate. He then returns to the highlights of the strategic planning process as presented in the "The Northbound Train" and very briefly sketches the dynamics of a strategic retreat or conference.and strategy formulation-these are not, however, main topics of this book.

This is a well written, absorbing, and informative work that succeeds in its aim of helping to make sense out of today's world of discontinuous change and outright chaos. It offers a template for exploring the environment and thinking about the future and, ultimately, identifying critical truths and insights, and prioritizing issues. Albrecht's final admonition is that environmental scanning is not a scientific process but guesswork. His book, however, greatly helps to lessen the guesswork-to lift the thick fog that usually enshrouds efforts to understand an organization's current and future environment. Highly recommended. Reviewed by Yvette Borcia, Editor, Stern's Management Review & HRconsultant (online), co-founder, Stern & Associates, co-author of Stern's Sourcefinder: The Master Directory to HR and Business Management Information & Resources, Stern's CyberSpace SourceFinder, and Stern's Compensation and Benefits SourceFinder.

Owen Paepke joins with Christopher Lasche ("The True and Only Heaven")in exploring the concept of progress. Lasche was concerned with the crass, hedonistic, individualistic, world without end amen aspects of modern progress. Paepke's take is more limited, dealing mainly with the economic aspects of progress. Both men see a new entity on the horizon - Lasche because it should arise, Paepke because it must arise.

Paepke is at his best when he is most detailed, explaining, for example, how even the introduction of fusion power will not substantially reduce the price of electricity (because it is already down 8-fold since 1925). He feels that we are nearing limits in many areas - communication is instant, ergo, news and entertainment follow, travel from one continent to another is a matter of hours, productivity is at a historical high, the computer is nearing the end of what is physically possible.

But is he right? How many times have the prophets of the end been proven wrong? If historical trends continue, each of the areas he discusses will continue changing. Computers almost certainly will continue along the path to humanlike actions and responses, new methods for creating energy will be created, productivity will surpass today's totals.

But in another sense he is correct. There are physical limits and once we have recognized these (an important point in his essay) then we can begin the adventure into biotechnology. At this point he joins with Lasche in stating that material progress cannot continue unabated in the frenzied pace to which we are accustomed. Lasche see a better educated, a more responsible, more civic-minded world. Paepke sees the same thing only with transformed humans who live longer and better than ever before. Both may - or should - be correct.

The Evolution of Progress: The End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation written by C. Owen Paepke is a book about what lies ahead for mankind as we begin to understand what mankind's real potentil can be. As man stands on the threshhold of the future, how and what will the future bring.

The theme of this book is a look into the potential of mankind, the transformation of people themselves through advances in neurobiology, genetic engineering, and gerontology. The author draws from history, economics, science and sociology, making the evolution of progress a revolution that is happening right before our eyes. What mankind has done so far in the way of progress will be greatly overshadowed in the next forty to two hundred years... longer lives, longer memories, brave new brains, super kids, and machines that think.

The people, on the other hand, will be so vastly improved as to defeat current understanding and probably imagination as well. Indeed, even using th word "people" to denote these beings is an anachronism. Within a century or two, genetic engineering will likely have chnged our descendants so greatly as to prevent them from mating with humans in their present form, making them biologically a separate species.

You'll get a look into the brave new world reading this book as the author gives the reader a peek into a future that might come to pass or a future that will be very similar. I found the book to be easily read with a narrative that is easily followed and makes sense. The authors conclusions are, of course, the authors, but what I found interesting is that the author starts with a premiss of questions and wotks through them.

As mankind meets the future, the author informs us that the victory of material progress is nearly complete; it has already accomplished most of what it can in the United States and other advanced nations. In some areas of technology, perfrmance has approached limits that no amount of future ingenuity will circumvent. In others, the state of art, although still far from any absolute limit, already satisfies any foreseeable need. The combination of extrinsic and intrinsic limits has alrerady slowed the rate of progress, and the effects are steadily widening and becoming more severe. Living standards have reached a plateau of indefinite duration. Progress in the future will lie in a very different realm.

This is very well written book, with careful thought, about where we are and where we're going, taking a look into the future. We are experiencing a revolution... a revolution in the evolution of progress, making this a truly fascinating book... making this time well spent as we look under the curtain to see what could be.. more likely what will be.

The Driving Forces Behind the Downsizing Revolution -- Business Process reengineering (BPR), while first scrutinized as a potential fad, has established itself as a continuing response to unsettling and deep-seated patterns in the global economy. An accretion of non-value added processes has encumbered bureaucracies, corporations, non-profits, and other social entities . . . but why are we now so desperately focused on removing these processes that were tolerable in years past? What seems clear in an intuitive sense is that major assumptions about economic growth and security are no longer valid. Even though the economy is now pulling out of its stagnation, most employees still experience anxiety about job-security and the growing number of temporary positions underscore that instability. Why, then, at the end of the 20th century, have we experienced a major shift in what is acceptable from an economic point of view for doing business? The answers can be found in a thought-provoking and unsettling book. C. Owen Paepke, in his book, brilliantly analyzes two quite profound observations about our era and observes, " . . the end of material progress and the emerging ability to sculpt human traits and abilities are watershed events. They will affect every item on the public agenda that they do not set outright. Their appearance on that agenda is long overdue." Called the "best non-fiction book of 1993" by Talk of the Nation on NPR, this book should be required reading for anyone engaging in the redesign of our governmental and commercial organizations. Downsizing, outsourcing, business process reengineering, process innovation, virtual corporations, agile manufac- turing -- all are symptomatic of something far deeper that is shaping our world, and those of us engaged in these activities are, metaphorically speaking, merely pushing the dirt with bulldozers. Paepke has put his hands on the two shifting tectonic plates that are creating these cultural and organizational upheavals. "Gloom and doom" evaluations of the economy are common, but Paepke's insights extend further and possess, in aggregate, far greater impact. He takes a catholic view of a broad range of indicators and consumer patterns to come to his conclusion; material progress, the staple of the two previous centuries' global economy, is ending -- in its place will be huge steps forward in the capacity for altering our human traits and abilities. Clearly, these twinned thrusts will dominate the redesign of social and business entities in their adaptation to significantly altered "rules of the game". But Mr. Paepke began this brilliant work not with conclusions but with questions. As his research deepened into the state of material progress in advanced nations, his findings "drove me to one answer I did not expect or want and another I find hopeful and inspiring." He asks his readers to evaluate the information, and not to accept his conclu- sions but to find their own. Most will be hard-pressed to duplicate Mr. Paepke's erudition or his elegance of presentation. One final note: Paepke's footnotes would make delightful reading on their own, and their placement at the end of each chapter was considerate for the reader. These notes are treasures for anyone looking for more details and flashes of humor.

This is a great book from the best medical school on earth, in my humble opinion.

this book is greatness, an epic tale of THE best medical school in the world. Hopkins is so amazing, I never knew there was one place where so much medical progress was being made. Hopkins is, bar none, the greatest place to train as a doctor in the world.

This book focuses on the the story that led the best medical school in the united states (arguably, in the world), to gradually change its curriculum to serve an ever changing world from a teacher-oriented method to a completely student-oriented method. A must to read for any administrator of a medical school. Makes me wish I had gone to Medical School at Johns Hopkins...

Bill Bradley's recent book is a good one, but only if you're unfamiliar with his perspective on politics. But it's also short and lively so it won't take much time to skim through.

Essentially, Bradley talks about his grand, unabashadly liberal and idealistic vision of the future of America. His guiding motivation is this: Right now America has achieved unparalleled economic wealth and global success. If we don't use this opportunity to help those who cannot help themselves, then when will we ever? It's a strong argument and Bradley is surprisingly fair-minded about it (for instance, he is not willing to sacrifice our economic prosperity for big spending programs even though he wants big spending programs to help the poor and uneducated. This is an admirable ideal, but it's probaly not very feasible. Then again, has anyone tried?)

The best aspects of this book are Bradley's anecdotes from the lessons he learned as a child or from his experience on the campaign trail in his unsuccessful bid for president this past year.

Other than that, if you know his proposals and his 'stump' speech (like what he gave at the DNC), then this book is not for you. If you do not, then it's worth your money and your time.

As a 17 year old, I feel that Bill Bradley is a man who I can look up to and respect. I first got heavely involved in politics in his primary campaign. He is a man that you can trust, a man who will not sell out.

This book is great for people who have not been exposed to Bill Bradley or who just want to hear more about his ideas. This book is great for anyone who feels pushed aside by the political system.

The best advice that Mr. Bradley ever gives is in this book: Do not sell out, stick to your ideals.

When Bill Bradley bowed out of the 2000 presidential campaign in March, it broke my heart for many reasons. First, because Bill is truly one of my heroes, someone whose passion and ideas I have admired for as long as I've followed politics (I was born in 1974 so I knew Bill as a Senator before I ever even knew he played in the NBA). Second, it broke my heart because I had waited for Bill to run for president for such a long time, convinced he was one of the very few with an actual heartfelt vision for this great country. When his campaign ended, I wondered WHAT NOW?

Bill answered my question with this book. "The Journey From Here" reiterates the ideas and principles that fueled Bradley's vision in a series of essays on (what should be) the most important questions facing our country today -- developing basic national health care, improving race relations, giving relief to working families, opening the democratic process through campaign finance reform, eliminating child poverty, maintaining a steady and healthy economy, and understanding our country's role on the world stage. Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative, whatever... folks, we're Americans and these are the questions we all must confront together.

Critics will charge (and have charged) that Bradley's plans are too liberal, too idealistic, and too far-fetched. To me, the questions are basic and Bradley's views are decent, practical and rooted in sound financial and social common sense. For example -- People ask how can we afford to provide basic national health care? The question should be, how long can we afford not to? It's simply too important to continue to refuse to acknowledge the problem. We consider our country the greatest on earth, yet the World Health Organization ranks us thirty-seventh in the world in the quality of health care. And Bradley assures us, it's really not about money (we already spend over a trillon dollars on health care), it's about attacking the problem in an intelligent and fiscally sound manner, yet making sure that no one is overlooked. We owe that to each other. After all, a healthy country is a happy and productive country.

Bradley does recognize that the government cannot solve all of our problems. In fact, that's why he wrote the book. Now that he does not hold an elected office, he's a regular citizen, like all of us. But that doesn't make the ideas irrelevant. And Bradley reminds us that WE should set the agenda for the country and for the government, not vice versa. He writes, "In a country where legitimacy rests with the individual, only the individual can ratify a nation's path." And he's right.

If you are familiar with some of Bill Bradley's other books, like "Time Present, Time Past" or "Values of the Game," you can already guess the best part of "The Journey From Here" -- Bradley's easy-going and candid nature. Thoughtful, informed, and sincere, Bill's words are his own, not culled from polls and focus groups or paid for by special interest groups. In today's political climate, it's rare and immensely refreshing.

Draws attention to the misconceptions permeating economic assumptions and policies in the United States and suggests alternative solutions to today's economic problems....-Journal of Economic Literature (An American Economic Association Publication)

"The author has a long list of credentials which include university teaching in economics, management and finance (U. of North Carolina), and jobs in both government and private industry that have involved public relations and financial institutions. He expresses opinions and offers explanations for a non-academic audience on a host of topics including taxes, government accounting, the global economy, and elections." - Reference & Research Book News, Nov. 1999.

Stimson's book is a handy guide for those who are skeptical about official economic statistics. It's a gold mine of useful correctives to prevailing wisdom and should be on the shelf of researchers, policy makers and ordinary citizens.

This slim volume isn't as much an introduction as a motley collection of interviews with Stanislav Lem, through which the author attempts to expose Lem's personal ideology. There is an overview of Lem's works - courtesy of the author, a pair of interviews (1992 and 1994), and a short essay written by Lem about his futurological masterpiece, "Summa Technologiae" (1964, essay written in 1991). The first problem the book runs into is that it's not particularly informative. I really hoped for a deeper analysis of Lem's works. In the interviews, Lem merely uses them to exemplify his beliefs. Furthemore, Lem himself comes off a bit patronizing and self-promoting. He repeatedly makes smug comments about his literary competition, several movements in philosophy, and a particular Polish critic who wrote an unduly scathing review of "Summa." Lastly, a good deal of the interviews become redundant. Lem's responses run long, and he manages to bring most to the followings few conclusions: the world can never be perfectly understood, or even fathomed; moderation is the safest philosophy - tertium datur; truth is in the eye of the beholder; language compromises any attempts at hard analysis; anyone who fails to believe that is misguided. Now that I think about it, Lem sounds very much like his GOLEM XIV. Nevertheless, he manages to make several interesting points about himself and his works: he proudly reiterates that he is most certainly not the alpha and omega of the European, or even Polish philosophical society; that his magnitude as a futurologist and philosopher is (mistakenly) overstated; and that his works are largely testing grounds for his evolving ideology.

The interviews portray Lem's faith in mankind as slight. He finds humanity as somewhat vain, and currently degenerating. An especially hard-hitting forecast of his predicts a deluge of information that will drown civilization. This examination of Lem's repeatedly frustrated attempts to bring the cosmic forces of logic to crack the tough nut of the Western civilization made me aware of just what I want from Lem as a reader: I want a book where mankind is awed and humiliated in numbers sufficient to produce a positive effect. I want the cosmos to teach man a lesson. I want an emergency exit.

A lot of information for being approx. 150 pages as every single page contains pertinent content. (In other words, there is not one single wasted line or sentence.) Very strong writing with a nice flair as it focuses on the interdisciplinary side of Lem's novels, rather than being just an ordinary literary review. The interviews with Lem are also thought provoking; since it allows Lem's "voice" to be "heard". However, it is a little dense and at some points may be difficult to decipher exactly what the author or Lem is trying to say as both use vocabulary that is not quite "layman's terms". Still, overall it does give good insight to Lem and is a useful introduction to Lem's works. In addition, the author's focus (how literature interacts with science and society)is a breath of fresh air compared to what is usually circulating around in the guise of literary criticism!

Recommended to all Lem scholars, science-fiction fans, literature lovers, and people who like to look beyond literature. I thoroughly enjoyed it even though it's not exactly Sunday reading.

If you are looking for a good management book that will present a new paradigm or will change the way you think, this book IS NOT for you. If you love management books, and find historical information about great companies and anecdotes within these companies, this book will nicely add to your collection.

The book was written before 1998 and was aimed at giving a picture of how the best companies of the time were getting ready to face the 21st century. To give you an idea of how well the book succeeded in predicting the future - the word 'Internet' is mentioned on ONLY 9 pages in the entire 350 page book. Of course, the inability to accurately predict the future and especially a sudden change brought about by something like the Internet is forgivable. The authors combine the Internet with a general section on Information Technology and its impact on the future.

The book makes for an interesting read though. It is packed with quotations, little known but interesting facts about big businesses, deep insights into what the leaders at the time were thinking (at companies like Ford, GM etc.), and commonsense management advice. Evertime I picked up the book, I got the distinct feeling that the authors didn't have a real point to make, but at the same time, I couldn't put down the book as I was fascinated by everything they found in their research.

There are not only references but also discussion of famous books by other authors, like 'Reengineering the Corporation' by Michael Hammer & James Champy. The authors throw some cleverly disguised aspersions on the authors of these other books.

The book is split into four parts (taken directly from the introduction and a really good summary of the whole book) -

1. The first part describes the drivers of change - the obsolescence of the old corporation, the eruption of information technology, globalization, the new intensity of competition, society's expectations, and customers' expectations.

2. The second part describes how the new enterprise is reshaping the way business views people, including the customer, the leader, and the employee.

3. The third part analyzes how companies are using the new tools they have in information technology, innovation, speed, and quality.

4. The fourth part takes up the changes in the corporation itself, how companies are becoming global, how they network, how they learn, how they can best respond to society's demands, how they can redesign their architecture.

Bottom line, if you are interested in curious facts and little known information about famous companies, this book would serve quite well for that purpose. I am still enjoying my many sessions with this book learning about all these companies. This is one of those books that you won't feel like throwing away. It has that endearing quality to it. But don't expect to learn something revolutionary in this book that will change your future. It's just a fun management book to read.

This book: describes the drivers of change; examines how the new enterprise views people; analyzes how companies are using new tools in information technology, innovation, speed and quality; and explores how organizations are changing. Chapters end with highlights that prove very helpful to serious readers with limited time.

The discussion about organizational drivers of change is based on research findings, which makes this book not only interesting but credible in a blizzard of publications spewing forth about organizational change. Given all these books on this subject, many based on the thin ice of one person's experiences in a few enterprises, a research-based work is appreciated. Reviewed by Gerry Stern, founder, Stern & Associates, author of Stern's Sourcefinder: The Master Directory to HR and Business Management Information & Resources, Stern's CyberSpace SourceFinder, and Stern's Compensation and Benefits SourceFinder.

The book is extremely well researched and thorough and is not blase enough to put forth a framework. Where it succeeds is by putting forth what the most successful companies are doing to prepare themselves for the next century in all aspects of their operations

I was disappointed with this book because I had thought it would be broader and relate to all kinds of businesses. But this book is very specific to the entrepreneur starting up his or her own business, only. Its examples are mostly of home-based businesses or small sole proprietorships. The writing is sometimes condescending and assumes you know nothing whatsoever about finances and investments (which may be good for some readers). It includes several chapters of additional information for start-up companies which take up a significant portion of the book and have little or nothing at all to do with writing a business plan. I feel like this book is mistitled and would be better named, "Mike's Guide to Founding and Funding your Own Business."

If you are a biz start-up novice and aren't sure what you need to do to get your thoughts out of your head and onto paper in a logical, well-organized manner...you need this book. If you have a business plan to write and think you might get hung up on the finance section...you need this book. If you have an idea for a business and don't know what to do next...get this book.

While this book may not be for the MBA grad, it is for the entrepreneur who is breaking on the scene with a dream that they have to make happen. How to Write a Business Plan must have used as it's mantra, "baby steps, baby steps in the right direction." Take a project that can be overwhelming and use this book to go through the process in manageable steps.

Napoleon Hill said it and so did Robert Kiyosaki...every successful business starts with an idea. Are you ready...why just sit there thinking about your great idea...why not go ahead and make it happen?!?

This book is one that we at nichemarket recommend highly in our Booklist for any Hip Hop Entrepreneur serious about a career in the music industry or any business venture!

C. Britt Beemr has been a guru in the retail sector for many years now, and his new book is full of information about the trends that are changing the retail landscape in America. To follow these trends, the authors contend, is vital to business growth and survival. Calling upon his extensive research background, Beemer names the trends and then provides the necessary steps to take advantage of these changes. Some highlights of the 15 trends include a lack of discretionary time, which means consumers have less time to shop. This lack of time leads to another trend--consumers have placed a premium on brand name products. Dual-income families are becoming single-income families, thus providing opportunities for telecommuting, part-time work, and home-operated businesses. Single-income families, mean another trend--more insistence on discount shopping, and increased demand for home improvement centers such as Home Depot. Another trend--more often these days, Americans are taking on the responsibility for their aging parents. This affects direct sales organizations such as Avon or Amway, who use part-time workers. New homes are featuring "mother-in-law" wings, and companies are providing their employees with health insurance for their parents as well as their children.

I found this book very easy to read. IT TAKES A PROPHET TO MAKE A PROFIT offers important and fascinating information that any company or business should pay attention to in order to anticipate the many changes taking place in the marketplace every day. Failure to understand these trends means more additions to the ever-growing corporate graveyard. Does anybody remember Studebaker, Eastern Airlines, Raiway Express or Gimbels?

This is a most unusual book. It builds on contemporary consumer research to identify some new trends that are less well covered by the broad-scale media and suggest potential ways that businesses can respond. Although its selective focus keeps it from being a primary resource for all of your trend planning, the insights from where the authors look are useful.

I have never seen a book on trends that is quite like this one. It excludes demographic changes (such as the aging population, smaller families, and delayed child bearing) but includes the consequences of those changes (such as more people taking care of elderly parents). Go figure why that distinction makes sense. My guess that this is based on C. Britt Beemer's expertise being in consumer interviewing (to a carpenter, every problem looks like a nail, and s/he hits it with a hammer).

I was also surprised by what the authors considered not well covered by the media. One of the findings is that "The Number of 'Paper Millionaires' Is Mushrooming." I doubt if anyone will find that surprising in light of the rapid growth in the stock market over the last decade and burgeoning home prices. All of those books about millionaires that sell so well also make that point.

Are any of these news to you?

"The Gap Between the Haves and the Have-Nots Is Widening"

"Community Involvement Enhances a Company's Reputation"

"American Companies Cannot Expect Employee Loyalty -- They Must Earn It!"

"Consumers Are Reluctant to Pay Full Retail Price"

"Gaming Casinos and Lotteries Have Joined America's Mainstream"

"Home Offices and Telecommuting Are Redefining America's Workplace"

"There Is a Growing Obsession with the Internet"

The book is valuable, though, in documenting the degree to which people have a time crunch (time for family vacations, exercise, reading, television, and shopping are all down) and are skeptical (they find rudeness wherever they go and are doubtful about the goodwill of those they work for and who serve them).

The book makes a great case for providing brand name goods and services that take less time, are less error-prone, come with good advice and customized attention, and are rapidly available.

Small businesses will get valuable ideas for how to fend off the national chains with better service and differentiated branding. Larger businesses will learn ways to overcome the presumption of being uncaring.

The principle of the book is to be like Wayne Gretzky, the NHL's great scorer. "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

In pointing out these general trends, the authors pretty much leave it up to you to find out what you should do to respond. Some help is provided. For example, one finding is that "Today's Marketing Efforts Are Not Keeping Pace with Changing Consumer Demands," and they describe how you can conduct your own focus group with customers once a quarter to test your marketing effectiveness.

Naturally, a limit of this kind of book is that if every business pursues these same trends, then competition just meets at a new place. Greater profitability may not follow (as many dot coms found while pursuing the Internet trend described here) if competition over focuses on the new area. So be sure to develop an improved way to serve customers that others cannot easily duplicate or surpass.

You should probably read this book in conjunction with one about how to manage your business to take advantage of trends to get the most benefit.

Keep looking ahead, but notice where you are and be ready for the unexpected!

I read just about every business book I can get my hands on, and I just finished reading the new Beemer/Shook book. This is one of the best ever. And the best part is that there are literally hundreds of tips that I can apply to my own business.

Beemer and Shook identified 15 business trends that cover everything from investments to frequent buyer programs. In particular, I liked what they write on Trend #11--why Americans are attracted to brand name products today. I also appreciated their comments in Trend #3, about how being a good corporate citizen is not only a good thing to do, but good for business. And Trend #13 on how Americans feel invisible today is a real eye-opener.

I'm a big fan of business author Robert Shook, and Britt Beemer is one of the nation's top marketing researchers. Together they make quite a team. I loved their first collaberation, PREDATORY MARKETING, and this one tops it. I hope they team up again because they're a dynamic duo.