Forecasting

The terms "Upheavals" and "Market Shock" should not be used to describe the subject matter in this book since it consists entirely of slow, gradual changes in demographics. These changes are only discussed in the most general of terms. There is not one chart or graph in this book. The lack of a timeline makes it impossible to do any serious financial planning. Most of these changes will not have a major effect on the U.S. economy until after most of us are dead and buried.

Unfortunately, the financial advice in this book is very limited, consisting mainly of common sense items, such as, "Learn to broil a trout." The useful information in each chapter can be summed up in one sentence: Chapter 1: Americans are aging. They will need health care and retirement homes. Chapter 2: Science is cool, but make sure that a lot of people will pay for it before investing. Chapter 3: Mutual fund fees are too high. (Also contains the crazy theory that all funds will collapse when people figure out they are not FDIC insured.) Chapter 4: One day, white people will be the minority in America. Chapter 5: The Japanese are getting older, too. Chapter 6: Europe needs Euro-denominated junk bonds. Chapter 7:China has a tough row to hoe. Chapter 8: The crime rate will rise. Chapter 9: There's that global warming thing.

I would recommend this book to anyone who enjoys historical trivia. On the one hand, I read every page in this book. On the other hand, I don't expect to ever make a dime off of anything that I learned.

We all see the changes that are taking place around us (such as the graying of America). This book takes those changes and puts them into perspective with actionable information. I kept slapping my forehead and saying, "I know this, why didn't I see where it leads?" Buchholz makes sense out of our everyday observations and puts them into economic context.

A rare book on the economy that is actually interesting and fun to read. Buchholz has taken a very clever approach to making his point (with mini-novellas) that are both insightful and well researched. And humourous. Raises some serious concerns about the not too distant future that we should all be looking at as we contemplate our next investment.

"Prepare Your Church for the Future" hit the Christian community with a bang. It offered a fresh vision for church growth that allowed the church to grow larger (the sky is the limit) and smaller (through cell groups) at the same time. Many of us were trained in George's methods. We attended numerous seminars based on his teachings, and other church growth teachings from Fuller's Institute of Evangelism and Church Growth.

But that has changed. While few people disregard this valuable work, even fewer are still so single focused on church growth as they were a decade ago. Along came people like Eugene Peterson, and Marva Dawn, and Richard Foster's Renovare group, and Brian McLaren, etc. They began to preach another vision, a vision of church health and personal depth, and life transformation.

Some began to notice that George's methods worked in some churches, but not in others. Some people began to question George's ministry altogether. The winds of spiritual fads began to blow from a new direction. We pastors found a new flavor of the month.

So, what are we now to do with George's work? I gave it 4 stars because it is still valuable reading. I continue to come back to portions of it again and again. I have clips in a couple of places so I can turn to them when I want them. I did not give it 5 stars because it is not the whole story. We must not neglect the lessons learned from the church growth movement. We must also not ignore the newer voices that are the fads of today.

C.S. Lewis encouraged the Christian to alternate between old books and new books. "Prepare Your Church for the Future" is somewhere in between.

Carl George wrote this book some time ago, but even today, it is a highly relevant and important book for many of today's churches. The concept of small groups is not exactly a new concept. Many churches have encouraged this for years. But few churches even now have turned the concept of small groups into a far reaching and fundamental tool of ministry, outreach, and caring that permeates the entire church mission. Even today, small groups tend to be a "back burner" concept among many churches.

This book tries to draw a direct relationship between small group ministry and church size. The theory is that a church can grow only so big and reach only so many people absent a vital and large emphasis on small groups. George cites a few megachurches as examples of the kind of ongoing growth and changed lives that occur when the church embraces small groups not with a recreational commitment, but with the kind of commitment that comes when something is considered a primary mission of the church.

The small group model for church growth is a model that works, not because George says so, but because several churches who have embraced this model are growing beyond many of the ceilings that the vast majority of churches who don't embrace this model can't seem to break through. Getting their people into small groups, when emphasized and encouraged, allows bigger churches to continue ministering to people and meeting their needs by allowing the congregation to minister to itself and not overtax the staff. This accomplishes the goal of the church not having to build up a huge staff of paid people to try and meet the needs of a big congregation. Therefore, allowing church funds to be spent not on an increased staff, but on more relevant activities that are more in line with the mission that God has imparted on the particular church. Further, small group multiplication allows the church to continue to grow and reach new people in the community in ways that are non threatening.

I did not give the book 5 stars only because the book does not appear to spend a lot of time discussing how a church can really establish a vital small group ministry and structure their staff in an effective way to cultivate it. Too often, growing churches want to do good things, but do not put the kind of infrastructure in place, whether people or facilities, to administer the programs with excellence. It's the classic problem of biting off more than we can chew. The motivations of the church are in the right place in these instances, but without a clear plan in place for administering a major small group ministry, George provides an incomplete strategy for implementing this approach. This may sound like a minor point, but it isn't. Ministries that are not undertaken with excellence are ministries that fail to fully fulfill the purpose for which the ministry was created. Having an administrative infrastructure in place that effectively manages a big small group ministry while also being an infrastructure that is frugal relative to church budgets is clearly one aspect of establishing a ministry with excellence. And this aspect is not easily addressable and thus, represents a significant challenge to George's model. It is solvable I believe, but George should have addressed this in more detail, in my view.

But clearly, George has hit on something that every church can benefit from if implemented correctly. At its core, Christianity needs to be about people. And in order to meet people's needs and transform people into fully devoted disciples of Christ, the church must place just as much a priority on meeting people's needs and providing care and support as it does on spreading the Gospel message. In fact, I would argue that those two things go hand in hand, and both are strengthened by the other. Having an active small group ministry that looks for small group solutions for a whole array of congregational concerns and interests is a proven model for church growth and evangelism, and something George describes very well. A good book, a good pastoral resource.

While some of the diagrams leave you wanting and wondering, the heart of the book solidifies the need for small groups. Especially in a era when there is so much demand on our time and so much stress in our lives. When George related the story of Jethro and his council to Moses, I knew our church HAD to get behind small groups in a big way. George shows how small groups are the key to a church family and how they are the true ministry of the church.

This book is really good.A must buy...and a good gift for a friend.

A great example of its kind -- I've read several books looking for one both knowledgeble and entertaining and this certainly fits the bill. If you are trying to do research or learn more about the practice of trading, this is very helpful. It presents a comprehensive (and comprehensible) guide to the world of direct access trading. Good job!

very handy book for reference. we are trying to use some of the helpful hints for our portfolio management.

This book is for a start up small business. Easy, walk through, step by step planning. Good conservative insights of what an investor or bank would be looking for. Favors the service industry.

It is designed to provide an annual plan ... not a five year plan. There is little in the book for advice in an ongoing buisness.

The verbage, however, is useful for any business plan.

This is an excellent book that will walk you through the process of writing your business plan. It covers all of the major sections of creating a business plan including Executive Summary, Market Analysis, Competitive Analysis, Strategy, Sales and Marketing, and so on. For each area, it asks clear questions, offers guidance to answering them, and offers different examples and formats that could be appropriate for different types of businesses. This is also one of the only business planning books that offers help with the financials!

Also, the book is well laid out and organized. It can be easily skimmed or read cover-to-cover with the major points highlighted well with excellent graphics. The sample business plans are very simple but concise and well written. Though they are not "real" examples, they can help provide guidance and get the juices flowing. Do not expect the book to make you a master of business planning, but as a tool to get started it is excellent. Furthermore, it can help you get thinking strategically and to get you asking yourself the right questions.

The only real negative about the book is that it does not tell you what types of formats or plans are appropriate for different types of businesses, and different types of financing.

I am a very proficient writer who found the task of writing a business plan for my consulting practice overwhelming. I knew what I needed to say, yet getting that perfect concise wording proved more than a notion. After reviewing several business plan "how-to" books, I found that only Bob Adams has made writing a first-rate business plan painless and pleasurable.

Whether a start-up or existing business, Bob has done the "scratch work" for each section of your plan and provided a wide variety of pre-written text options for you to tailor to your specific situation. In addition, he walks you through every step of creating those much scrutinized financial documents, item by item, giving formulas when necessary so that nothing is omitted or misunderstood.

It has been 18 monnths since I used Bob's book to construct my initial business plan. The results was a "living" document that has served me better than I ever anticipated.

Jasper "gets it" because "it" is common sense really. A more believable (and thus attractive) brand is one that appears genuinely aligned internally and externally. It's 'ideal' branding. However, the problem is that most companies today have all these pressures in their head that make this nearly impossible to implement in a smooth way. It requires core thinking and consistency and teaming up with the people at the top of the company. Yet, the average lifespan of any President and CMO today is like one year. And when during their tenures, they think, "I need sales tomorrow. Not some zen master to come in and 'harmonize' my culture with my image." They further believe that the "outside agency" should stay in his/her place. "Just do the fricken ads. I don't need a corporate shrink right now." Of course, it's up to the agency team to enlighten them to the business benefits of this 'alignment' approach. For now, I've found that rather than force a company to take on an approach that makes them uncomfortable (or an approach that they feel is out of your range as an outside agency), it's best to seek out relationships with only those companies that are already doing it, just not effectively. The goal is to help them 'strengthen' their branding, with a perceptive strategic planning process and creative sensibilities that ultimately put it in to play. As we succeed on this level, the companies who didn't see its value at first,
will soon follow. I suggest that Jasper's next book be about how to educate and sell in such an approach.

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Quick review : well written, easy to read with examples, and quite innovative - but the more experienced pratitioner or well read academic will probably be familiar with much of the ideas presented.

Full review : This book will appeal to those who prefer the visualisation of models and concepts alongside short examples, and the format will be particularly liked by those whom have followed an MBA degree or similar training. Main stream academics looking for well researched material may be a little disappointed, for by the authors own admission this book is "a constructive attempt to show another, more dynamic way, for companies to move forward. This book is not about research results, but about attitudes". The center has received feedback from many practitioners and managers tackling live corporate branding projects whom seem to like this book, and it is a fairly easy and somewhat innovative read for non-specialists or general managers, but perhaps less so for the well practiced or academic experts in the field.

The author, Jesper Kunde, is the founder of one of Scandinavia's largest and most successful advertising agencies. In this book, he outlines how it is possible to build strong brands through strong leadership and a strong vision. In explaining his holistic approach to brands and organisations, he draws on concepts from psychology and he argues that his ideas can be implemented in any organisation. The book is not a step-by-step manual as such, but rather an introduction to Kunde's way of thinking.

Kunde points out that simply having a good product is not enough anymore. Consumers pay less attention to adverts and brands and look at the companies themselves. They are looking for reliable companies with sound, consistent attitudes. It is necessary for the management to secure trust and loyalty from both within the organisation and from the consumers, and it thus needs to communicate its ideas to all the company's employees and to the public. Kunde argues that if a company has a strong spirit as its foundation, it can reach a strong market position, and a strong market position is what ultimately decides a company's destiny.

In order to achieve a strong market position, an organisation has to have a strong leader who can unite the entire organisation around an idea, a shared vision - a corporate religion. It is important for the leader to find out what the company really is, to be able to describe it. Kunde argues that this ability is unusual, especially in large international companies.

Successful examples mentioned in the book's many short and to the point case studies are Richard Branson and Bill Gates. These charismatic leaders have strong believes, a clear vision of the future, they know how to communicate it and they are conscious of their own roles. However, Kunde points out that the challenge is to establish the corporate religion in people's minds throughout the whole organisation, so that it is not connected to just one person. The corporate religion must be able to continue even after the first charismatic leader is gone, perhaps particularly relevant based on Microsofts problems of recent months.

Kunde argues that in most large, international companies half of the available energy is unused. If the management can describe the company, develop a consistent company concept, formulate an internal religion and manage the whole company accordingly, this hidden potential can be released. The employees, and consumers, need to feel that the company has a soul and that they are all fighting for a cause. The ultimate goal is to reach the stage which Kunde calls 'brand religion', when the product is a lesser part of the brand than the concepts associated with it. Harley Davidson is one of the examples Kunde mentions.

Summary

Kunde writes in a clear and straightforward manner, and Corporate Religion is an easy and enjoyable read. Those used to already reading ideas and approaches from scandinavian academic literature will find this general philosophy to business practice quite familiar. The concepts and ideas are well explained and further illustrated by case studies and graphic models. It is a book that some academics (used to MBA approach to learning) and most practitioners will enjoy and find useful as it provides both interesting ways of analysing organisations and of interpreting the reasons for their success, or lack of it, and practical guidelines on how to implement a corporate religion and what pitfalls to avoid.

However for well-read academics or practitioners, the book may not seem that revolutionary and Kunde's ideas rather common sense, but it is still an inspirational book worth reading if you have the time.

Many will be offended or discouraged from reading this book because of its title. Most of us would like to get our religion from a religious institution or our spiritual practices.

What is in the book did not seem to me to really relate to creating and maintaining a corporate religion, however. I found the book to be describing the benefits of having intense emotional bonds among customers, users, companies, and employees. I would rename this book, In Search of More Intense Connections.

The key theme of the book is the importance of creating emotional value. 'Emotional values are replacing physical attributes as the fundamental market influence.'

Mr. Kunde is the head of his own advertising agency, and his perspective is very much a psychological one. He takes that point of view, however, and effectively expands it to include a company's external positioning, internal culture, nature, mission, corporate concept, external market competition, internal relationships, and management tasks. This is one of the broadest corporate concept descriptions that I have seen, and is a helpful one.

The book contains detailed examples of companies operating at various levels of effectiveness in these areas. The examples are very visible ones that should mostly be known to you. His examplars are companies like The Body Shop, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, The Walt Disney Company, Harley-Davidson, Nike, Virgin, and SAS. The book contains many beautiful color illustrations and photographs from these companies that reinforce the author's point. To him, 'corporate religion is a set of values which unite the organization around the mission and vision.' When these values are compelling enough, people who do not even use the company's products or services will wear merchandise with the brand name on it. For example, Harley-Davidson stands for freedom in the minds of most, and young women who honor that principle wear skirts with the brand name on it who have never been on a Harley. There are even Harley-Davidson cafes (I have eaten at the one in Manhattan, and I can promise you it isn't the food that brings people in. There is lots of wearable merchandise sold there and elsewhere).

The book ends with a one-year plan for implementing a corporate religion, and an example of how the author applied these principles in his own advertising agency.

Just a few years ago, it was unusual for a management book to address the psychological satisfactions of having an empowering purpose in one's work. Today, that theme is a fairly common one. The book rises above many of the rest by addressing more elements of creating and maintaining this empowering purpose. I encourage you to read the book and apply its lessons. When I first worked in a company after attending law school, I was pleased to find out how cooperative business is compared to how competitive law is. This book brought back that perspective and made it fresh for me again.

These days, many people seek out volunteer work to gain the satisfactions that paid work does not provide. You will know you are making progress with these concepts when people tell you they feel more self-esteem from what their business work stands for than for what their volunteer work does.

After you have finished reading this book, I encourage you to think about the most empowering purpose you can imagine for an organization or a company. Then ask others how they repond to that purpose. Keep refining that purpose until you find an expression of it that positively zings you and sends others into a happy orbit as well. When you can do that, you will then be well on your way to finding the ideal best practice for leadership.

Be irresistible!

Donald Mitchell (donmitch@irresistibleforces.com)

From this book,I can have interest in Market psychology.And I get to learn more about this. Please let me know about the seminar held by Tony Plummer !

This book is not (only) about how markets work, technical analysis, market and individual psychology, and trading systems - rather, it's a book about how you integrate all of that into a coherent philosophy. As another reviewer points out, this is not the best book if you want to get into the details of various trading systems and methods. However, it contains true originality when it comes to understanding market dynamics, and the psychology of the trader. For that it's well worth its five stars. In addition, it gives you something uncommon - a personal statement from not just a trader, but great intellect and spirit in love with the markets.

Tony Plummer's recent visit to New York and his speech at the Princeton Club had prompted me to reread his book. In his quiet, understated, very British way, but with a tremendous clarity and style this professional money manager reveals mass psychology is behind market moves. If the markets drive you crazy with their seemingly irrational swings, read this book to see the logic behind disorder. Tony Plummer illuminates market movements for you in a way that will impact your understanding for as long as you trade. Then he shares some of his analytic techniques. This book belongs on the desk of every serious technical analyst and trader!

Good ideas, well organized, but a bit simple. If you want to start something more complex than a simple "mom & pop feel" type business you need go elsewhere.

Great book on the basics of writing a professional business plan for any small company. For anyone who's starting a business for the first time or is sitting down to write his or her first business plan, this is among the most useful books to turn to. The chapters for the most part walk the reader through the various section of the business plan and there are examples of actual plans following the author's guide in the appendixes to the book. There are also worksheets and a useful glossary. The writing is clear and a good starting point.

Veteran business owners and new entrepreneurs can derive immediate benefit from Anatomy of a Business Plan. It is THE book to get your fast-growing venture or franchise on track, and to secure significant financial rewards. Anatomy presents the strategy and elements of a Business Plan to guide both product and service-oriented companies,from major organizations to small partnerships. The financials in this book are the most comprehensive I have seen. If you're looking for the template to take to the bank for a loan, or seeking a management tool, Anatomy is the key.

No frills, direct to the point. If you are looking for a simple to read, short, and to the point book, this is it. Priced very reasonable, it is a good buy.

The authors would have done well to include more examples, and also explain the Tops Down, and Bottoms Up approaches to doing FMEA.

I suggest you look past the few errors in the book, and learn the essence of doing FMEAs. It can get you started in a very short time.

Great little book which I, as a Quality Engineer, found useful and which I would be happy to distribute to busy people at all levels of a company knowing there is a good chance it will be read.

This books covers the essentials required to get people started and productive on an FMEA team.

Only complaint is the cost to get it down here in Australia!

This book provides simple, easy to read and understand of the concept of FMEA. Although it is use to determine the possibility of a failure and the consequence but it is also useful for risk assessment.

The step-by-step examples bring the readers to the final picture on how to complete the FMEA cycle will surely benefit all of us!

I am from INDIA. I come accross with so many books on this subject. But the work by CHRISTINE SHAW is very much outstnding by its quality.The command on the subject is commendable. She takes the reader simply along with her explaining all about the art of prediction which is nucleus of the subject.The simple style of narration will have a pleasant going through the book all the time.It is a must to a beginner. It draws simply to the essential area of the vast subject.

Christine Shaw's, Predictive Astrology, is not only a well-written and understandable guide, it is thorough and comprehensive for the intermediate level astrology student. Although the book does not really teach the reader how to "predict the future," it does guide the reader in finding the signposts for the possibilities that are out there for all to see. An excellent addition to any student forecaster's library. Crisp, clean and thoughtful.

This book is for the reader who is well grounded in basic astrology. It describes progressions, which are various ways of moving the planets ahead (or backwards) to show current and future development.

I have seen only a few books on progressions, and Christine Shaw's book is at the top of my list for the counseling astrologer. Christine is an Australian astrologer who has had her own astrology school, and has lectured in Australia and New Zealand. Excellent astrology seems to come out of Australia, and Predictive Astrology is no exception.

Robert Blaschke's books on progressions are extensive and thorough, and give more precise instructions for accurate timing. But Christine's book is easy to use, and sufficient for day-to-day work. I would turn to Robert's books after familiarity with using Christine's book.

Christine not only knows her astrology well; she is able to convey her knowledge in a dynamic and practical fashion. The book includes a lengthy and rich discussion of progressions in general. Christine uses personal research as her raw material, and her discussion is grounded in real circumstances, thus bringing progressions down to earth. The bulk of the book describes specific planetary progressed aspects, from the progressed chart to the natal chart, and within the progressed chart.

Christine talks primarily about secondary progressions, which follow the basic formula of one year in the life of the person (or event) equals one day in the ephemeris. However, a progression is a progression, and similar dynamics will operate in any type of progression. She also includes progressions into houses, and stationing progressions.

Christine stresses the importance of the natal chart. Progressions do not correlate with developments unless they are promised in the natal chart, and the way a particular progression works depends on the natal disposition of the respective planets. This is why a thorough grounding in astrology is necessary before moving on to more complex interpretation. If you know natal astrology well, the rest is in fact easy because the same principles apply. A planet is a planet, a sign is a sign, and a house is a house.

Let us look at a major progression for GW Bush: his Cancer Sun progressed into Virgo, and joining his natal Virgo Mars. This progression came into orb two months ago, and will last for two years.

First, looking briefly at his natal Mars in Virgo: This is an analytical and fix-it Mars. It also makes for nervousness and irritability. Mars semi-sextiles its dispositor, Mercury in Leo, on GW's Ascendant. (Christine discusses the importance of minor aspects.) Mercury in turn has a partile conjunction to Pluto in Leo. This shows the potential for using that Mars for power-mongering and bullying. (Readers, aren't you glad I don't go through this with you regularly? And this is just the beginning of setting the foundation of this progression!)

Here are some excerpts about Sun-Mars Progressed Aspects from Christine's book:

"This is an excellent time for initiating projects. It is not a time for cooperative ventures. You need to identify with what you are doing, and to use vigorous action. Take the plunge. During these two years the qualities of your Sun sign can be more fully expressed. This period will show you what you are most interested in accomplishing. ...You need constructive direction and planning.. .Poorly used, there can be aggressiveness, accidents, fights, separations, and death."

We can see a turbulent two years beginning for GW.

Predictive Astrology is well worth while owning and using.

The ironic thing is, you couldn't tell it was written in 1932 or 2002 .. the techniques are identical to basic TA today , even the psychology section about cutting losses and trading with the trend sound familiar. Certainly revolutionary when it came out, it's somewhat dated now and a bit wordy. Anyone familiar with chart patterns - h&s, wedges, flags, triangles, trendlines will likely find nothing new in this book. Also, the explanations are a bit wordy .. though I suspect this was necessary when no one was familiar with it. I give it 3 stars for content and another for the fact that it was written in 1932. However, an advanced trader will find this book useless other than for sentimental curiosity.

So you want to learn on how to read charts... This is the one for you then! A little dense sometimes due to it's completeness on patterns, but it's all there, really. Won't teach you on how to make a trading system, but if you're into discretionery trading systems you'll love this one. I haven't found a reversal pattern that's not on these pages, and if you want to know about continuation patterns, they're all almost there too. I recommend this book for beginners as for experienced traders.

This is one of those books I keep next to my trading desk!

Finally available to the rest of the world, this classic is easily the best book on classical technical analysis available. Although it is more than 70 years old, the complete and descriptive discussions of how and why reversal and continuation patterns work are as valid now as they were then. Without Schabacker, there'd be no Edwards and Magee, Elliott, Murphy, or even Poser.