Forecasting

This book is a must read for anyone who has a calling on their life. I read it through and and now re-reading it with my highlighter. Anyone who wants to walk closer to the Lord must read this.

Joyner has outdone himself this time.

If you are looking for meat and not milk, Rick Joyner has written the book for you. This book will challenge and draw you to honestly face and deal with your weaknesses, help you prepare for difficult days to come, and encourage you to turn your eyes to Jesus and follow Him faithfully. Only those serious about growing need open its pages.

I will stronglly recomend this book to every serious believer. This book help me understand BIBLE better. There are many great advices about how to deal with problems in our religious life. I love chapter 6 "Kowning God's Voice" and chapter 10 "The Religious Spirit".

Market Models is an essential tool for practioners who would like to gain fundamental expertise on financial modeling. Aside from the practical view, Alexander's book has got such a clear and comprehensive reading that even the most inexpert individuals can get enthusiastically involved in learning issues related to risk management, investment analysis and financial forecasting. Recent econometric techniques on time series are brilliantly applied with real examples on the finance field. The book demonstrates that the author has a great knowledge on both a theoretical as well as a practical basis on market modeling and knows how to combine the two aspects in a very intelligent way. I considered this book to be a fundamental reference for either financial profesionals and academics.

Targeted towards practitioners concerned with model development, the book addresses key issues in market risk measurement, quantitative trading and investment analysis in a very systematic and clear exposition. I find it particularly reassuring that someone with the author's academic background and hands-on expertise has decided to undertake the responsibility of putting-up a comprehensive guide to financial modelling, from the basic use of financial data to statistical techniques selection and model implementing. Particular attention is paid to supporting each subject with real-world examples, both within the text and in the associated CD. Moreover, the spreadsheets contained by the CD can always represent a useful reference for building your own models. As I find this book really helpful for applied, but also academic model development, I recommend it highly.

If you are looking for detailed rigorous mathematical development then look elsewhere, that is not the reason to purchase this book. It is targeted towards application and there it excels. I have not seen any other book on this topic that so effectively presents a level-headed applied approach that keeps the basic assumptions of the models firmly in sight.
What tool fits when is nicely discussed.

Ed Rogoff has written a must buy for those planning on starting or expanding their business. He takes you through a step-by-step plan from your initial idea to your grand opening. Examples, forms and common pitfalls are all covered in an easy to follow system. If you want to make your dream a reality, "Bankable Business Plans" will get you started.

Rogoff is simply ingenious. I have read many books over the years to guide me in business, but the clarity and detail he provides for business plans is quite brilliant. I would recommend this book to anyone wishing to write a business plan and raise money - it is the best 50 bucks I have ever spent!

A very readable, straightforward guide to business plans that really have the "right stuff". Not a formula or a cookie cutter but a comprehensive guide to all the issues that need to be thought out and developed for a bullet proof plan, right down to how to present the plan in person. The book is written clearly with a welcome touch of humor. As an investment banker /entrepreneur who has written, evaluated, critiqued and funded or rejected countless business plans over many years, this is by far the best and most helpful guide book I have come across. Also useful if you are reviewing business plans of others as to what was not addressed and also as a reality check on a business in which you might be involved as a director, officer, lender or creditor. I highly recommend Bankable Business Plans.

I read this book first about 2 years ago. Frankly Randi didnt seem to spend enough time discussing the subject of the book,Nostaradamus. He discusses astrology in great detail which is interesting at first but eventually becomes tiresome. The book would have a better read if more focus was on debunking nostradamus. The time spent explaining why people have interpreted his quatrains incorrectly is very interesting though. And the stories about Nostradamus and the predictions he provided for individuals of his day were particularly fascinating and really seemed to smash the image most people currently hold of him. Overall its a good book, clearly Mr. Randi did loads of research here. He provides an impressive amount of historical evidence to backup his claims, that's why so many people who review his books at amazon attack him personally, rather than his writings.

James Randi treats the reputation of Nostradamus as a prophet and healer with the bemused contempt that it deserves, and this, combined with his thorough knowledge of the tricks of the trade of "New Age" charlatanism, makes this book worth an entire library of pro-Nostradamus tomes. The highlight of the book concerns Randi's examination of ten of the most notorious of Nostradamus' quatrains -- including those which are supposed to refer to Napoleon and Hitler -- and his systematic dismemberment of the outlandish claims that have been foisted upon them by the cynical and the credulous (BTW, the two famous "Hister" references in Nostradamus are, as Randi shows, archaicisms concerning the Danube river, and not foreshadowings of the future dictator).

Towards the end of the book [p.223], Randi offers his own "prophecy," which seems to encapsulate the general spirit of the book:

"The legend of Nostradamus, faulty as it is, will survive us all. Not because of its worth, but because of its seductive attraction, the idea that the Prophet of Salon could see into the future will persist. An ever-abundant number of interpreters will pop up to renew the shabby exterior of his image, and that gloss will serve to entice more unwary fans into acceptance of the false predictions that have enthralled millions in the centuries since his death. Shameless rationalizations will be made, ugly facts will be ignored and common sense will continue to be submerged in enthusiasm."

Have you ever noticed those documentary style shows on The History Channel or watched an NBC special on the supernatural or something of the sort and noticed the lack of any objective or sceptical voice when it comes to the supposed prophecies of Nostradamus?Of course any sceptical or reasonable voice would expose the patent nonsense for what it is and that would not make good television,now would it?This state of things has gone on far too long and it is about time someone peeled back the layers of nonsense that has enveloped Nostradamus over the centuries.It is fairly obvious from the get go when you read Nostradamus that the man was as all the other jokesters,hucksters and frauds before him,but since his death he has been credited for predicting every major happening of the last 400 years.Randi makes it very apparent that every generation takes old prophecy and applies it to contemporary events without the least bit of intellectual honesty.Ultimately though I don't think this book or a 100 others like it will make the least bit of difference.People want to believe that they are living at a turning point in history, and whatever prophecy they have to wildly and laughably misinterpret in order to convince themselves of it cannot and will not be swayed by any rational arguments.I'm afraid the irrational is something we just have to accept as an unvanquishable part of the human psyche.

I must say this is the best book I have ever read in my 10+ years in MLM. Richard Poe describes (in detail!) the coming trends that really will help millions become involved in network marketing. These are not trends he hopes will come, but you will realize it is coming like a steamroller. Network marketing is now inevitable and millions worldwide will take advantage of it!

But, it took about 2 months to digest the full impact of Richard's new book for me. I learned what "affiliate" marketing is and have now become an affiliate for many companies.... I now can "refer" others to buy Wave 4 (and other books) via my web site and I get a 15% commission.... Cool! In visiting Richard's Wave 4 web site , you'll see he is doing the same thing.

He (and I) don't have to handle the inventory, manage the sale, ship the books, or anything else. Yet as a reward for "referring" others, we get a 15% commission.... Isn't that what networking is all about, referring others to products and services and getting paid to do that?!

So opening my eyes to this form of network marketing has been very revealing. I now share with others the many types of networking (affiliate, mlm) available to anyone who has access to the Internet.

I have also realized what a "Wave 4" network marketing company is and I am glad that my choice in mlm is now a Wave 4 company. Passive income, here I come!

This book is one of best fact book i've ever read, after reading wave 3, wave 4 really hit the Heart in MLM, the stories and coming substantial changes in the business organization proves a best time to enter the new age of network marketing, after reading this book, it will motivated everyone in your downline.

This might truly be the "Wave 5..." business.
It which marries a foreign exchange trading (a very hot industry in its own right) program with Network Marketing.
This truly looks like a "Fifth Wave..." type of business.
All the details are at:
http://rhub.fxtrainer.biz
Happy New Year,
Robert

Who knew making huge leaps in achievement could be this easy -- and this fun? The 2000 Percent Solution gives you a simple process for overcoming mind blocks (the book calls them "stalls") and achieving fantastic results. The book gives funny and vivid examples (my favorite is the apes in the cage)which make the book an enjoyable read instead of just another dry essay on management. You'll be kicking yourself because you haven't recognized many of the self-imposed obstacles to progress that the authors describe. I had to read the book more than once to grasp some of the ideas in the second part and I'm sure that I will read it again to get more of the fine points. The best part of the book is that the authors give you this great concept but then they also give you a process to enable you to act on that concept. You'll actually find yourself acting differently instead of just filing the book and then proceeding with business as usual. Read this book and you'll start looking at the world in a whole new light. Suddenly the unattainable seems just around the corner!

In February of 1998, I attended a group work session where we used the process described in this exciting new book to identify where we thought our companies were potentially "stalled." A wide variety of businesses were represented at the session yet each participant could easily identify with common problems or "stalls" we all faced. The ideas generated for me at this meeting were outstanding. And, in fact, the strategy our company followed in 1998 was very much in step with the ideas and action steps created using this process. In 1998 our company successfully completed a Dutch auction that brought back over ten million shares at 65% of today's price; we successfully divested ourselves of a non-core business; we reduced our cost of capital; we completed a major acquisition; and our earnings increased dramatically.

The key message throughout The 2000 Percent Solution is to get rid of your bad habits and embrace change. The book helps suggest how to identify problems that are preventing success. Continual growth and success depends on continual improvement. The 2000 Percent Solution will help you accomplish this. Read it!

The nautre of organizational behavior (really individual behavior within the constraints imposed by organizational culture) is to seek incrementalist changes at the margins. Rarely do the well-entrenched want to leave those trenches to risk what they have in the fluidity of the uncretain. This is natural, since safety is something innately sought by most organisms most of the time. Short-term safety can be a good predictor of impending decline and death, as the old adage says: "Whom the Gods Would Destroy, They First Give 40 Years of Success."
The authors propose that aiming for incremental, marginalist change is a "stall," a way of refusing to face or accept the need for real change. (Sometimes, the need for change can be misread or mismeasured, with New Coke being an example they give.) The authors offer a number of vingettes designed to illustrate "stallbuster" tactics that will impel the desired-for change. These vingettes are bite-sized case studies of how real-world organizations approached (or failed to approach) problems, and the results of their actions. These are compared, in terms of implicit values, with the formal values each company had adopted. The actioning of these values provides insight into where disconnects between policy and performance occur, with McDonalds' response to the infamous hot-coffee lawsuit and Odwalla's in dealing with food-poisoning problems being one example. Each company's colture at least partly pre-determines the range of responses that their leaders can imagine, with a corresponding range of predictable results.
In the tradition of Dr. Kurt Lewin ("Field Theory in the Social Sciences") the authors propose that breaking through stall-tactics requires more than a circumstantial, piecemeal approach: unfreezing organizational behavior ("stallbusters") and shifting focus to enable lock-in (for however short- or long-term fluid circumstances dictate)of more adaptive actions. This is a key to breaking out of the prepare-to-win-the-last war mentality, as well as the incrementalist mindset that curses mature firms in the cash-cow stage of growth, before radical change to survive drastic environmental shifts carries a Phyrric price for survival.
Measurement is an area of continuing focus: What we measure becomes how we measure success. Rejecting or supplanting traditional measurement concepts may be necessary so as to allow truly pertinent data to be collected. (One anecdote deals with a company priding itself on a 1% error rate for each process - without anyone recognizing that errors are cumulative, resulting in 80% of its' customers experiencing some form of product failure.) Time is one of the things that Mitchell, Coles and Metz believe has to be measured - especially in the more-nebulous disciplines, like financial analysis, where productivity has been more difficult to quantify. If outputs are hard to measure, them time spent on various tasks can show how much of a workday was productive, even if unquantifiable.
This work is not a by-the-numbers, how-to workbook with checklists. It should not be read that way. It is rather more Aesop-like, in that it uses stories to illuminate a few key points, which are them discussed in terms of broader application. Read as intended, this book can help to exercise the imagination of leaders who want to leave corporate Darwinism behind for radical mutation in a world loosed from its' fixed reference points by technological breakthroughs, geopolitical flux, demographic shifts, and culture-shock: In other words, the search for a 2,000 percent solution.
-Lloyd A. Conway

Peter F. Drucker writes in the Introduction, "...this is not a book of 'predictions,' not a book about the 'future.' The challenges and issues discussed in it are already with us in every one of the developed countries and in most of the emerging ones (e.g., Korea or Turkey). They can already be identified, discussed, analyzed and prescribed for. Some people, someplace, are already working on them. But so far very few organizations do, and very few executives. Those who do work on these challenges today, and thus prepare themselves and their institutions for the new challenges, will be the leaders and dominate tomorrow. Those who wait until these challenges have indeed become 'hot' issues are likely to fall behind, perhaps never to recover. This book is thus a Call for Action."

In this context, in Chapter 5 of this invaluable book, Drucker focuses on knowledge worker. He says that "the most important, and indeed the truly unique, contribution of management in the 20th century was the fifty-fold increase in the productivity of the 'manual worker' in manufacturing. The most important contribution management needs to make in the 21st century is similarly to increase the productivity of 'knowledge work' and the 'knowledge worker.' The most valuable assets of a 20th-century company were its production equipment. The most valuable asset of a 21st-century institution, whether business or nonbusiness, will be its knowledge workers and their productivity."

Thus, he defines six major factors determine knowledge worker productivity as follows:

1. Knowledge worker productivity demands that we ask the question: "What is the task?"

2. It demands that we impose the responsibility for their productivity on the individual knowledge workers themselves. Knowledge workers have to manage themselves. They have to have authonomy.

3. Continuing innovation has to be part of the work, the task and the responsibility of knowledge workers.

4. Knowledge work requires continuous learning on the part of the knowledge worker, but equally continuous teaching on the part of the knowledge worker.

5. Productivity of the knowledge worker is not-at least not primarily-a matter of the quantity of output. Quality is at least as important.

6. Finally, knowledge worker productivity requires that the knowledge worker is both seen and treated as an "asset" rather than a "cost." It requires that knowledge workers want to work for the organization in preference to all other opportunities.

He argues that each of these requirements-except perhaps the last one-is almost the exact opposite of what is needed to increase the productivity of the manual worker.

Highly recommended.

This is the invitation made by Peter F. Drucker in his book: Management challenges for the 21st century. The author writes: "Reading this book will upset and disturb a good many people, as writing it disturbed me" and "It is a very different book from the one I originally envisaged". These two sentences explain that the pressure of the future is so already with us that ideas coming to the author have difficulties to organize on the paper. But this stressing environment gives one of the best book of Peter F. Drucker with issues not to be ignored by knowledge-workers and executives who will have to work on them to make sure to be among the leaders of tomorrow.

In the 2 first chapters, we are sharing ideas from the Management's assumptions, which are no more valid in the "New Economy" to The New Certainties on which very few organizations and very few executives are working on and are invited to a call for action in front of a period of a profound transition.

In Chapter 3, Peter F. Drucker is describing, the Change leader, which mission will not be to manage change, because it is not possible to manage change, but to be ahead of it. Different recommendations are given, but the more important one is piloting the change to permanently test reality. If making the future is highly risky, it is less risky than not trying to make it in a period of upheavals, such as the one we are living in.

In chapter 4, the author convinces us that IT Information Technology has to move from the T to the I. That means that Technology as such is not the concern of executives when Information is. It is true that executives did not get always, with the Information Technologies Revolution, the Information they need for acting. But Information requires also to move from internal information to external Information, because strategy is mainly based on the last one. Information being the key resource for knowledge workers asks to be organized at individual and group level to anticipate and avoid surprises in front of significant events and to prepare for action.

In chapter 5, after discovering that the main contribution of management in the 20th century was the fifty-fold increase of productivity of the manual-worker in manufacturing, we are presented the challenge for the 21st century as being the increase of knowledge-worker productivity. The move there is from quantity measurement to quality measurement of an agreed defined task of a knowledge-worker, which is part of a growing population in developed countries. Knowledge-workers, owning their means of production, the knowledge between their ears, are becoming assets instead of costs. And if costs need to be controlled and reduced, assets need to be made to grow. This means a change of attitude of management but also of corporation governance who have to find balance between the interests of shareholders and knowledge-workers contributing to the wealth of the organization.

In the final chapter, we are presented the impact of all previous evolutions on the individual knowledge-worker, who will have to manage himself in this new environment. This is a real revolution in mentalities due to two new realities: workers are likely to outlive organizations, and the knowledge worker has mobility the manual-worker did not have. Partnership is becoming an answer to these changes with all the consequences for the individual who has to ask himself: "what should be my contribution" and "where and how can I have results that make a difference", yes a real revolution already there.

Management Challenges for the 21st Century is giving the basics to enter the period of profound transition we know with the arrival of the "New Economy" and will make the difference for the people who read this book. We really have to thank Peter F. Drucker for this important contribution at the age of 90, a masterpiece after more than sixty years devoted to management development.

Peter Drucker has a beautiful mind, forever fresh and overflowing with innovative thoughts. This book, published just as the master of management began his tenth decade of life, shows him at his perpetual best. The text carries with it the sweeping knowledge, deep experience, and astute analysis that a reader might expect from Drucker at this point in his life. But you will find no timid conservatism, no holding on to safe ground here. Drucker has made a lifelong habit of leading the way in business thought and this book confirms that he just can't help himself.

In contrast to the typical business book which is 200 pages too long, every chapter and every page of Management Challenges for the 21st Century relentlessly tweaks the noses of bad assumptions while focusing our attention on the future. Drucker pulls together diverse trends and forces to map out the truly new management challenges. His first chapter, "Management's New Paradigms" argues that organizations (or what ManyWorlds calls "business architecture") will have to become part of the executive's toolbox, yet we continue to operate on outdated assumptions about the role and domain of management.

Fortunately much recent management thinking explicitly challenges one assumption pulled apart by Drucker: The idea that the inside of the organization is the domain of management. This assumption, says Drucker, "explains the otherwise totally incomprehensible distinction between management and entrepreneurship". These are two aspects of the same task. Management without entrepreneurship (and vice versa) cannot survive in a world where every organization must be "designed for change as the norm and to create change rather than react to it."

Although Drucker is intent on uprooting old certainties and focusing organizations on constant change, he does not leave the reader without a compass. In the second chapter, "Strategy-The New Certainties", Drucker says that strategy allows an organization to be "purposefully opportunistic" and explains five certainties around we can shape our strategy. While other writers have addressed a couple of these, too little attention has been paid to some of the inevitabilities analyzed here, including the collapsing birthrate, shifts in the distribution of disposable income, and the growing incongruence between economic globalization and political splintering.

The book's third chapter, "The Change Leader", gives Drucker's unique perspective on the need for 21st organizations to be change leaders. "One cannot *manage* change. One can only be ahead of it." Change leaders have four qualities. They create policies to make the future which means not only continual improvement but *organized abandonment* - a practice still almost unknown in practice. Contrary to typical company reactions, change leaders will starve problems and feed opportunities. For Drucker this means, in part, having a policy of systematic innovation and - in tune with recent calls for new budgetary practices - having two separate budgets to ensure that the future-creating budget is not stopped off in difficult times.

Strong as the first chapters are, I found the other chapters of this book even more incisive. The reader may come away with the sense that many of Drucker's points are obvious, but will realize that they only *became* obvious after hearing them. In his chapter on "Information Challenges", Drucker gives his own, historically-rich, controversial, and provocative take on our current information revolution - the fourth such revolution, he says).

The man who coined the term "knowledge worker" has no shortage of fresh thoughts in the chapter on "Knowledge-Worker Productivity", and has profoundly important things to say in the final chapter on "Managing Oneself". Management Challenges for the 21st Century is, of course, essential reading for aspiring manager-entrepreneurs in these confusing times. As for aspiring business writers, I can only say: Read it and weep!

The preponderance of research for the past 100 years or so has demonstrated convincingly that stock markets are pretty efficient and that stock prices move randomly, or almost randomly. That is a strong argument against trying to time the market. Author Leslie N. Masonson disagrees, contending that if you use a few simple techniques to time the market, you can avoid losses and wind up with a more profitable portfolio than if you simply bought a representative selection of stocks and held them, as most financial advisors now recommend. He could have presented more evidence to support his opinion, but he is honest enough to contrast his point of view with the many arguments against attempting to time the market. He acknowledges that timing requires certain staunch character traits that are far from universally present in the investing populace. That is to his credit. Also to his credit, according to us, is the fact that he usefully defines and discusses a number of trading techniques and information sources that even non-investors should know about and that investors should understand

I have been a trader for years, actively trading well over a 100,000 shares a day, while managing a substantial portfolio. I have read most of the "I have a winning stock market strategy for you" books over the past several years. Aside from a handful they all were relatively disappointing. I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised by this, "Market Timing", book. Many of the, "Market Strategy" books I have read require the investor to spend an unrealistic amount of time managing their investments and require them to have an in depth understanding of the stock market. I found much of the information to be eye opening and enlightening, even for a professional, and the strategies quite useful. If the author's goal was to provide investors with a No Nonsense perspective of the market and strategies to increase their total return while significantly decreasing their risk over the long term, then mission accomplished. I strongly recommend this book to amateur and professional investors.

I have been investing since the mid 60's and the philosophy I follow, spelled out by all the stock mavens, is to buy "quality" and "hold". Masonson's book points out the folly of this approach. He makes a convincing case that in spite of all the wisdom that I have absorbed over 40 years, that "it ain't so". I will need to spend more time digesting his simple marketing timing strategies. In the future, I expect to be a smarter investor and not sit tight when the market is collapsing. Thanks for opening my eyes to the real world of investing. This book is well written, has tons of interesting facts, and lays bare the critical importance of cutting losses short and investing with the odds in your favor.

History is replete with companies done in by forces beyond their control. History also celebrates the rare examples of executives who turned these "irresistible" forces to their great advantage.

Can executives of companies see the wave soon enough, catch and ride (read manage) it to sustained growth, rewarding themselves, employees, customers and shareholders along the way?

In their new book, The Irresistible Growth Enterprise: Breakthrough Gains from Unstoppable Change, authors Donald W. Mitchell and Carol Coles lay out a road map for managers that, if followed, will allow them to take advantage of forces beyond their control. Authors of the popular The 2,000 Percent Solution, Mitchell and Coles show how CEOs can benefit from flexibility when they confront irresistible forces and provide a set of principles for shaping vision, strategy, tactics, management process and organizational structure.

The book identifies external factors and obsolete ways of thinking. For example, "companies that strategize only to optimize the forces when they are positive, will face grave difficulties when the forces shift directions," say Mitchell and Coles. A lack of understanding can lead to "inappropriate action or no action," the authors suggest in their book.

In separate chapters, they describe a wide range of stalls commonly faced by companies in a section called, Overcoming Stalls and Taking Actions.

These stalls include:

A lack of direction;

Wishful thinking that favorable conditions will return;

A sense of helplessness about actions to take;

A defensive reaction and denial of the seriousness of the forces;

Relying only on the company's resources to handle the situation;

Covering up problems and "throwing in the towel";

Being too independent and believing they can succeed;

Being overly optimistic about succeeding; and

Underestimating the impact.

Mitchell and Coles set out eight steps that will allow companies to manage these irresistible forces successfully:

1) Recognize how measurements can help your company identify and understand more about irresistible forces;

2) use your own leading indicators to anticipate shifts in irresistible forces;

3) identify the future best practices for locating, anticipating and adapting to change in irresistible forces;

4) extend your vision to accomplish best practices beyond anyone else in the future;

5) identify the ideal best practices for benefiting from irresistible forces;

6) determine how to operate close to ideal best practices for locating, anticipating and adapting to your irresistible forces;

7) enhance your people's ability to achieve the benefits of irresistible force management; and

8) repeat steps one through seven for improved effectiveness in using the management process.

Last, the authors urge readers to "embrace the forces," encouraging managers to "seek out the irresistible forces" as a basis for early action. Survival, growth, and personal opportunity are at stake and at hand. They lay out a course of action for taking the lead inside your company and mobilizing people.

A chapter personalizes the entire process for each reader's overall life.

robertlowe@mindspring.com from Atlanta , 5 July, 2000

The Irresistible Growth Enterprise is a breakthrough work and a millennium message from one of the truly gifted business minds of our times.

The perspective and information in this book is of equal importance to the CEO, CFO, Corporate Director, executive, manager, supervisor, sole practitioner, first time entrepreneur, or student at any level.

This is more than a 'how to' book yet you may use it to work through what you must do to grow, thrive, change, and survive into the new century. It is more than a management technique book, yet the techniques introduced and developed here may be used as a guide for any who must manage to manage into the turbulent and exciting times ahead. Among the 'irresistible forces' with which we must deal are such events as globalization, market fluctuations, economic surges and reversals, new technologies and their economic impacts, natural events - weather and catastrophes, demographic changes, and the myriad aspects of human unpredictability. Don Mitchell tells us that 'Most people see irresistible forces as random factors or inconveniences, but The Irresistible Growth Enterprise will instead show you how to use all those forces instead of trying to avoid them.' This principle, at once ancient and modern, is essential to both business health and personal development.

The principles and practices in this book are more than mere ideas. They are the culmination of practical gleanings, over decades, in close business and interpersonal relationships with an astounding number of the nation's top executives dealing with real-time irresistible forces.

The Irresistible Growth Enterprise is required reading if you wish to deal effectively with the geometrically increasing velocity of change and development facing all of us today. As Don Mitchell says, 'This multiplier effect will increasingly happen with all irresistible forces, and this is the key insight upon which you must act now.'

Robert Lowe - Author Improvisation, Inc.: Harnessing Spontaneity to Engage People and Groups Jossey-Bass/Pfeiffer (2000)

Fritz Leiber's "Lankhmar" stories tell of a fail-safe system available to the citizens of Lankmar in case they were in grave danger of defeat: They could summon the Gods of Lankhmar, who would lay waste their enemies - and them, too. (Naturally, one does not summon them too often.)
Many leaders, thinking like managers, wait until drastic action is mandatory to save their organization - risking possible destruction in the process. Mitchell and Coles outline a series of steps, somewhat reminicent of Napoleon Hill's "Think and Grow Rich" system, for recognizing danger (read: opportunity), planning for riding the crest of said opportunity, and for overcoming the organizational inertia that most large systems possess to make it happen.
Part of the change process is accepting risk: The "Gods of Lankhmar Effect" might do to describe the process they envision, as the change device carries the potential to expose the organization to collateral damage, or "creative destruction," as Shumpeter termed it. Knowledge of the risks involved contributes to the "stalls" many cohorts will use to block change. Much of the book is devoted to strategizing ways to overcome the more common ones.
Some of the stalls ("But that's not the way I thought it would be!") remind one of the reactions of individuals to personal loss - the grieving process is often described as a five-step one, including denial as an early reaction. Facing change of major magnitude, when the action called on for survival and the chance to prosper, may involve the preceived loss of what one holds dear. Like Themistocles, the innovative leader may have to sell his people on letting the Persians burn Athens, by offering a compelling vision of the marbled splendor awaiting the victors, as opposed to hoping that a conventional response to overwhelming force will somehow do the trick - magical thinking, if you will.
Tactics described by the authors start out with measurement concepts - an essential part of a rational decision-making process. Collecting relevant data, and knowing what that is, constitutes the first line of defense in directing organizational change. After all, what good is a thermometer when what is needed is a Geiger counter?
The essential quality of the book is this: Accept the need for overcoming a majority in your organization who will not see or accept change, and who may not accept the best alternative for meeting it, along with the consequent resourcing demands. Be prepared to identify and ally with those who come to share your vision. Anticipate dealing with stalling tactics, or be just another Cassandra - right on your predictions, but ignored by those you warn.
-Lloyd A. Conway

1. Synopsis:

Corbin's foresee that by 2010 great leaders must be at what she calls level 2 leaders, and in order to operate at this level these leaders must: Orchestrate a 360 degrees worldview, Order the chaos, blend multiple organizational, engage the whole person, and ignite innovation.

Orchestrate a 360 degree worldview includes two steps:1. Gather organizational intelligence by overcoming worldwide trends that occurs during periods of opportunity (or windows) and foresee the outcome (or issues); and 2. Understand the dyna-forces (interesting concept) created by these worldwide trends that originate systematic change. These dyna-forces are: globalization, marketization, informatization and democratization.

In order to overcome chaos, level 2 leaders need to figure out the root cause of the chaos (changes in speed, changes in rules or changes in structure), be aware of the new century organization models and be prepared for the role of the 21st century leader (level 2).

Level 2 leaders need to foresee the blending of multiple organization models during the next Century, foresee the driving of the 21st Century worker and be aware of the present blending of organizations and the strategies applied to blend those organizations.

Level 2 leaders will need to engage the 21st Century worker as a whole person and not by his/her skills and ignite innovation at any cost.

Corbin foresees a hermaphrodite workplace (androgynous) where man (FINALLY) will learn soft skill (typically considered feminine) by engaging in a spiritual search.

Final Comment:

This last statement along with numerous stereotypes, sexist and deeply Christian religious remarks, casts big doubts about the seriousness of the book. What a shame!

Carolyn Corbin intertwined her future predictions of the 21st Century with leader/worker development to become a viable workforce in the future she predicted. While not outside the realm of common sense, her predictions are still eerily thought-provoking.

This book outlined the five steps to becoming a leader in the 21st Century. In Step One, she discussed assessing one's own leadership effectiveness and compared that to what skills will be needed for the future. She summarized major world changes into four "dynaforces" of the 21st Century...globalization, marketization, informatization, and democratization. Step Two was order the chaos. Many futures books discuss how to adapt to change or how to go with the flow...so I was exceedingly curious what exactly she proposed to "order" this. She thoroughly explained the future factors that will lead to change and chaos, and the more we understand these factors we can pro-actively work to diffuse as many chaotic factors as possible. Step Three provided many examples of blending multiple organizational models of profit, non-profit, government, religious, higher education, and more. She shows the limitless possibilities of applying successful models from organizations that have already dealt with issues to different types of organizations that will be confronting similar issues in the future. Steps Four and Five have to do with the individual-engaging employees on all levels of their person and providing a workforce that fosters their innovation.

She illuminates the skills we can develop today to prepare for tomorrow. Whether intentional or not, her description of the future makes one re-examine everything you think about current leadership training and how it does not adequately prepare employees for what is to come.

Carolyn Corbin's: Great Leaders see the Future First: Taking Your Organization to the Top in Five Revolutionary Steps, balances practical how-tos (in just about every paragraph) with great stories. Her bottom line: if you don't change from being what she calls a Level 1 leader (reactionary, always busy, focus on gathering & analyzing information, sacrifice innovation to pursue continuous improvement) you will be obsolete by 2010! To survive you must be moving to Corbin's Level 2 (strategizing, focusing on the whole person, leading at warp speed, improve through innovation).

Most of the book covers a quick way for moving from a level 1 to a level 2 leader by applying the following 5 steps:

1) Orchestrate a 360 degree worldview (use strategies to be "tossed" high in the air to see 5, 10, 25 years into the future)

2) Order the chaos (by controlling it)

3) Use a blend multiple organizational models (like for-profits, nonprofits, universities, military, religious institutions - because one will not longer do)

4) Engage the whole person (meet employee's physical and spiritual needs like day care, elder care, and providing work-place Chaplains)

5) Ignite innovation (via creativity, remove inhibitors, add humor)

You might think that 214 pages would go fast. But the book had an uncanny ability of slowing me down as I focused on my own style of leadership, my own organization's shortcomings. Every page is packed with something to move the reader from Level 1 to Level 2. For example, in the chapter 6 on "The Role of the 21st Century Leader" ideas included crafting an organizational mission statement in 10 (5 is preferable) key words, really listen to workers and act on their requests, understand other cultures, and move from a 20th century leader to a 21st century leader by changing from being:

boss --> coach
authoritarian --> participatory
tough --> tough and tender
informs --> listens
status from position --> status from working harder

Late in the book Corbin asks the reader to spend time going through two self-assessment exercise: 1) exploring your soul and 2) assessing your preferences and core competencies. My only critique of the work is the lack of more of these kinds of reflective exercises earlier in the book.

Although Great Leaders may not be as holistic as Steven Covey's Seven Habits of Highly Effective People which deals more deeply with all aspects of one's personal, business and professional life, I do recommend it for any leader who influences the future of their organization. I recommended it to two of our Human Resources personnel after they gave a "How to Managing Our Institution's Way" seminar.

Dave Harmeyer
Pepperdine University doctoral student (Ed.D. Educational Technology)