Factor

Published in January 2001 this book contains
(p. 176) a prediction about the course of the
NASDAQ that up to now (i.e. 27 October 2002) is
fairly well matched by the actual fall of the
NASDAQ Composite Index over the period 2000-2002.
Strangely enough, that prediction is not based
on a sophisticated stochastic model, but rather
on the observation of previous stock price
peaks such as the one in Paris in 1882, the crash
in Paris in early 1929, the crash in New York in late
1929 and several others.
You may think that such an approach based on the analysis
of recurrent events after all is not different from
what chartists are doing. There is however a big difference.
Here the approach works
because it compares events which
are brought about by similar phenomena.
An example may
help to better understand that point. Obviously, it
would be an hopeless task to base a forecast of tomorrow's
weather on the weather observed on previous days. However,
it does make sense in August
to forecast the average temperature
in New York City six months later for this prediction
is based on
a well-defined phenomenon, namely the rotation of the
Earth around the Sun. Similarly, the author shows that
behind stock price peaks there are
indeed specific recurrent phenomena; note that these
phenomena are not confined to the sole financial sphere
but are deeply rooted in the society as a whole.
The book is not only about stock markets but considers
all kinds of speculative fever whether affecting stocks,
real estate, postage stamps, collector books, sugar, silver
or diamonds. The section about real estate markets
is of particular interest at the present moment. It shows
that real estate price peaks ressemble stock price
peaks in the sense that they are almost symmetrical with
respect to the maximum, but they are smoother and
the shift from the up- to the down-going
phase is gradual instead
of being sudden and abrupt as was the case for the NASDAQ.
At the end of the book the author provides several useful
data sets such as real estate prices in Britain and
Paris, price of individual NYSE stocks during the crash of
1929 and so on.
There is an insightful story on almost every page of this
book. Highly recommended.

David J Bellis, PhD is professor of public administration and chairman of that department at California State University in San Bernadino, but he is also a former heroin addict. He has been very active over the last 30 years as an academic, as a researcher, as a politician, as a reformer and as a program developer on the issue of drug addition and its treatment and management.
This book has six chapters: introduction to the study, etiology of HIV transmission, heroin and commercial sex work, study methods, comparing Mexican and San Bernardino sex workers, summary with an appendix where you can find the survey questionnaire and an excellent index.
The book is the result of two research projects. One interview study in San Bernadino with 72 female sex workers (FSW) in 1988 and in Mexico (Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Ciudad Victoria, Cuernavaca) during 1996-1999 with 102 FSW. In both studies the interview was on site, where the FSW worked and the interview included 48 questions on demographics, types of sexual behavior, types of clients and number served per day, history of STD and HIV infection, condom use and client attitudes towards condoms, alcohol and other drug dependence, criminal history, knowledge and attitudes towards AIDS.
This study showed marked differences between Mexican and American FSW with a much better situation for FSW in Mexico. The women in Mexico have more monthly medical checkups, have been tested monthly for STD as a legal requirement, have been tested for HIV, have sex with fewer clients and mainly with own race or ethnic group, reported that most customers used condoms and wanted that protection, have condoms in their possession, have dependent children and very little intravenous drug abuse. From the study the author recommend for Mexico to reduce or eliminate prostitute health license fees in order to maximize health surveillence, to educate in schools about STD and AIDS and legalize prostitution in controlled settings. For the United States he recommends better HIV/AIDS/STD prevention and treatment programs, free methadone maintenance for heroin addicts, free needle and syringe exchange programs, decriminalize heroin and reform prostitution laws and legalize prostitution.
This is indeed a very interesting book with a healthy and concerned approach to the "oldest trade" in town, which policy makers and administrators should take seriously.

Professor Joav Merrick, MD
Director, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and Medical director, Division for Mental Retardation, Box 1260, IL-91012 Jerusalem, Israel, email: jmerrick@internet-zahav.net

Mohammed Morad, MD
Family physician, Division for Community Health, Ben Gurion University, Box 653, IL-84105 Beer-Sheva, Israel, email: morad-62@barak-online.net

House Comfortable is a very complete resource for creating a comfortable home. I recommend it for first time decorators and those who are designing a custom-built home. It covers a variety of topics including lighting, color, furniture placement, room measurements, etc. But, it goes beyond listing the design elements of a comfortable home and actually tells you how to achieve this goal. This book includes a resource section and loads of wonderful, practical advice; detail you would tend to omitin a do-it-yourself project. It reads like a stylish text book that you will want to take with you on shopping trips.

This book is both a call for better designed medium density housing and a source book on how to achieve that end. The great thing about this book is that it provides simple design and layout advice for housing projects based on detailed research and post occupancy evaluations. This book sets out what works in housing design. I think every planner or designer should have this book close at hand.

Eventhough this book was published in 1973 and has been out of print for many years, I am still surprised occasionally when someone runs across a copy of it. It presents a "street smart" approach to real estate analysis for investment and finance purposes.I have used this approach in my own business successfully in numerous states in the years since the book was published. I have found that even with the amount of data avalilable in todays market that many times the data is wrong having been gathered from brokers or others with a vested interest or from unreliable word of mouth sources. This technique still works. If you come across a copy of the book-I hope you find it profitable. Gordon J. Anderson 12/27/99.

What would you think of an analysis of more than 400 datasets? John B. Carroll has given us an impressive review of the factorial analytic studies covered most of the human cognitive abilities. But, he has gone beyond the re-analysis level and has made up a new model of intelligence: "The three strata model" which will help us to avoid hopeless discussions about the nature of the most important cognitive abilities and to advance in the actually interested topics about such abilities. Specially, he finishes with the argument about the existence of the g factor but, he also recognizes the importance of the Thurstone's primary mental abilities and the Cattell and Horn's distinction between fluid and crystallized intelligence. I think everyone concerned in the cognitive abilities field should read this book and keep "The three strata model" in mind in the analysis of his/her research.

The web is essentially software, just on a different platform. As such it can be designed, analyzed, and optimized in a systematic fashion. Human factors research into software design is over 20 years old. This usability engineering knowledge can be used in the design of web sites. This book offers the latest examples of usability engineering applied to web site design.

The goal of this book is to provide a snapshot of current and future research being conducted into HCI on the Internet. Twenty- three experts in HCI-related fields contributed the 16 chapters of this book. Well-known names like Ed Chi (Xerox PARC), Mary Czerwinski (Microsoft Research), and Andrew Sears (UMBC) all wrote about their research into how we interact with the web.

The book is thought-provoking in the breadth and depth of knowledge presented. The book moves from "digital strategy" and planning, through analysis, to design and evaluation. Highlights from the first two parts include Shneiderman's "universal usability," where web sites are designed for a world-wide audience (presented ably by Andrew Sears), cost-justifying web usability (Mayhew and Bias), usability metrics (Opaluch), and "phone usability" where usability surveys are conducted at low cost over the phone (Ratner). Talk about discount usability engineering!

The third part, comprising more than half of the book, explores the cognitive aspects of web usability. Microsoft's Czerwinski and Larson offer a glimpse into HCI research at Microsoft. They propose that a stronger cognitive foundation must be achieved before we can truly optimize the design and usability of web sites. In their "Cognition and the Web" chapter they highlight areas where works needs to be done, and show some interesting examples from their research.

Czerwinski and Larson offer a new metric to better fit cognitive science to web design. They propose that Relative Subjective Duration (RSD) is a better measure for gauging user satisfaction. RSD measures the difficulty users are having with a task by time estimates. Users who are interrupted tend to overestimate task duration while completed task times tend to be underestimated. They also offer a glimpse into Microsoft's research with sections on nonspeech audio to enhance the web interface, telephony, and speech recognition.

The "Scent of the Web" chapter is especially relevant to web designers as Ed Chi (Xerox PARC) offers an automated way to analyze the usability of sites before users see any pages. Not unlike an animal's foraging behavior users use "information scent" to optimize their efforts to find what they want. Information scent is the perceived value and cost of assessing a piece of information.

Chi has developed a tool to called Bloodhound to automatically sniff out a site's usability based on a predictive model suggested by information scent and information foraging theory. As we scan and skim web pages we use information cues like link text and surrounding text, graphics, position, and frequency of occurrence. Chi has mathematically codified these cues into a "scent matrix" that predicts the probability that a user with a particular information need will move from page A to page B. Using this matrix Chi's tool can predict paths where users will go with particular information needs, and how effective particular sites are for particular sets of keywords.

Their Bloodhound tool can accurately predict where users will surf within sites, how usable sites are for particular information needs, and even summarize sites by keywords. Using simulated users (each with a set of a keywords representing their information need) their Bloodhound service can automatically return metrics that rate web site usability.

Chi says that a scientific understanding of human behavior in web surfing is essential to web usability. Innovative tools like Bloodhound can lower usability testing costs and improve our understanding of human behavior on the web.

The book essentially says that heuristic rules of thumb and best practices can only take you so far in usability engineering. For real progress we need a stronger cognitive foundation on which to improve the usability and design of web sites. Guidelines may work in isolation, but on the web there are so many variables that applying these guidelines to all sites for all users doesn't always work.

We require multidimensional analysis to assess the best ways to design actual sites. We need to study more complex, real-world problem domains that better match what users actually experience. This book offers a fascinating glimpse into current and future HCI research on the web.

Brigadier Simpkin talks about the un-thinkable; what appens when a human being goes to war in an armored vehicle. This ugly truth is not talked about because in peacetime you can stop and leave the vehicle to relieve yourself...in battle you go in your pants and/or your vehicle for you will be lucky to be alive after its over to be sickened by the stench.

This is ridiculous as its one of the driving factors that gets vehicle crewman killed--history is filled with examples of armored crewman getting killed as they stop to rest/relieve themselves away from their vehicles, and on the around-the-clock, "dirty" battlefield with chemical, nuclear and biological agents leaving the vehicle for ANY reason could kill you. Simpkin conjectures why don't we build INTO the armored vehicle human factors--a way to relieve yourself in your battle position using a seat with commode features, a place to lay down and rest and eggads, a shower. He is right, but the conservative military mind which is all macho is already sensistive to criticism that mounted warriors already have life "too easy" and simply will not do it. I only know of the British Warrior MICV that has a troop seat/commode capability. We are not talking about never leaving the vehicle in non-contaminated environments to fight dismounted and achieve adequate security--we are talking about not turning the vehicle into a pig sty.

Despite this, Simpkin is right and inspires many designers to advocate that the Future Combat System (FCS) have human livability built in, and that a trailer and/or a lock-in/lock-out module on the vehicle rear with hygiene capabilities be develeoped so light foot infantry can come in and refresh or decontaminate and put on new protective clothing when their old stuff needs replacing. There is a way if we have the WILL, and reading Simpkin shows you the way, its up to us to get the WILL.

Airborne!

If your great grandma died of "stomach cancer", the real cause may have been advanced ovarian cancer. Hummel and Lindquist lead you through the complex world of ovarian and uterine cancer, in a very understandable way. Use their book to develop a family tree to trace genetic predispositions to these silent killers, and learn about their possible links to a family history of breast, uterine, and ovarian cancer. Then discuss your findings with your doctor to develop an early detection plan to reduce your risk. Although hard to find for purchase, place your order, then go to your local library to locate a copy to get started early on your defensive planning. Buy this book to refer to in future years, and to lend to siblings, aunts, and your own children to help them reduce their risk. If someone you love has battled these cancers, this book is a must read to calm your own fears, and arm you to stop a similar war in your own body. A long term plan for preventing and catching these cancers early is your best defense, and Hummel and Lindquist offer a no nonsense approach to this strategy

A remarkable, scintillating work, filled with luminous prose and breathtaking discussions of tailpipe test implementation.