Engineering-risk Books

for investors, managers, and inspectors of tall buildings, this is an exceptionally useful book. Mr. Graighead combines his Australian roots and his California experience in a clear guide to fire safety and security management of these "vertical villages." I have quoted from this work in forums around the world, and have made this book a special present for colleagues in the fire service and architecture and "authorities having jurisdiction." It is a how- to and why guide to active systems. I recommend it highly. And, given that so many skyscrapers are now being built in Asia and in Latin America, I hope this is translated into Chinese, Korean, Spanish and Portuguese. - Richard A. "Nick" Candee, Executive Director, Global Operations, NFPA International

This excellent collection of papers develops a context for decision-making in an integrative framework. This is a follow up to the 2002 ASCE monograph on Acceptable Risk Processes; this one was produced by the Risk and Vulnerability Committee of the Council on Disaster Risk Management. Note the interesting addition of intentional disasters.

1. It is more expensive today than renewables when decommissioning costs and waste disposal are included.
2. In the intermediate time frame, it is more expensive than LNG or (projected) coal gasification + CO2 sequestration.
3. Yucca Mt is a flawed repository. For example, it is an oxidizing not reducing environment, which will speed corrosion. Waste encapsulating materials are "exotic" man-made alloys that have existed for less than 100 years. These are supposed to operate normally for 100,000+ years. The site is riddled with cracks and clear evidence of past volcanism.
4. All reactor designs that could be deployed soon enough to even slightly mitigate climate change (Gen III+) generate copious amounts of waste that can be reprocessed to isolate and expedite to bomb-grade. "Just 1% of the enrichment capacity required by the global growth scenario's reference case would be enough to make between 175 and 310 nuclear weapons each year." (p. 114). If you think that the standoff with Iran over its NPT-rights are tricky, note that new reprocessing techniques are much less energy intensive and much more covert than centrifuges, heightening difficulties in detecting a parallel weapons program.
5. The industry has a history of "normalizing deviance", only to be surprised when e.g. corroded reactor vessels are found. Reactors are being relicensed for 40 years, and there are discussions of going to 60 years or more without evidence of a skeptical and cautious mindset.

This book is very impressive in its documentation and attempt at balance, and is remarkably cheap but well made with relatively few typos. It is a detailed and comprehensive summary, and should be read by anyone trying to assess our energy options and who cares about the world we are leaving for our children. With oil supplies set to decline from their current peak within the next 5 years, Mexican oil production crashing, natural gas supplies in North America no longer growing, all without official recognition of clear trends, we have few routes forward. Can wind and solar fill the gap as nuclear plants reach the point where they become recurring maintenance nightmares?

This book is best read with Megawatts and Megatons: The Future of Nuclear Power and (see my review), which examines some Gen IV concepts. Perhaps we can return to nuclear power in a few decades after more work on those designs, which rethink the problems while keeping sustainability and stewardship at the forefront. Perhaps a thorium based approach, with transmutation and other tricks? But this book made clear to this physicist that Gen III+ plants should not go forward in any number that would have a significant effect on net power generation or global climate change.

This introductory book covers an unusually complete list of topics for such a complex subject. The first three chapters (Risk Analysis; Functions, Models and Uncertainties; and Regulation)are perhaps the most valuable. They cover the basics of risk analysis, defining essential terminology and concepts as they go. Risk is defined on page 1 as "the probability of a future loss", and this definition is applied consistently throughout. It is highly useful for prospective risk assessment, although -- as the authors acknowledge -- it is not a universally accepted definition. By contrast, *retrospective* risk assessment concepts (such as attributable risks calculated for litigation)and definitions that attempt to combine probability of a loss event with the probable severity of loss if it occurs (e.g., F-N curves and risk profiles) receive relaively little attention.

The discussion of ethical systems in regulation is welcome and illuminating. Formulas and numerical expressions throughout the text are kept elementary and the authors develop them carefully, assuming little more than high school algebra as a prerequisite.

Introduction to Risk Analysis follows the tradition of dividing the field into three major components: assessment, management, and communication of risk. It explains (without endorsing) the famous Red Book and Presidential Commission paradigms. The authors are careful to distiguish between risk analysis and processes of safety assessment and public health advocacy.

The ten chapters after the three introductory ones cover risk assessment(exposure assessment, dosimetry, extraction of potency estimates from epidemiology and toxicology data, risk characterization, comparative risk, and ecological risk), risk management, risk communication, and case studies.

The book emphasizes environmental and health applications as its major case material. Given the extensive use of risk analysis by federal regulatory agencies, this emphasis should be interesting and helpful to a wide audience of students and practitioners. While most of the text is devoted to chemical risks, the principles explained in the book apply broadly to other areas of applied risk analysis such as infectious diseases, radiation hazards, insurance, and financial and engineering risks.

The relatively sophisticated and detailed methods and models of risk in modern finance and other areas are not covered. Such details would be appropriate for a second course in risk analysis. This introduction provides general concepts and frameworks that may be useful in many applied areas but it can only introduce many topics and areas (e.g., decision-analytic approaches) that invite further study in a follow-up course or book.

The easy style and broad coverage make reading the book attractive. It is to be hoped that the authors follow with a second book for those whose appetites are whetted by this stimulating introduction to the field.

Mr. Gilbreath's "Managing Construction Contracts" book does an excellent job of describing important "how to" aspects of construction contract administration. He also provides excellent insight into "why" it is important to perform the outlined contract administration tasks. His "real life examples" are outstanding!

I found the book very good, it covered the subject completely, with extended bibliography. It was like reading a scientific article written to be read by everyone easily. Very good work! I recommend it!

This text provides perhaps the most concise and authoritative resource for the field of Metallurgical Failure Analysis that I have read. Rather than apporaching failures from a cookbook perspective, that is only linking cause to failure through single case histories, this author presents the fundamental concepts of the discipline and suplements them with appropriate examples.After reading the book, I am considering using it a text to a course that previously could only be approached with personal course notes. This is the most comprehensive and fundamentally organized book I have read in years. Well worth twice the price.

The most important decisions that society will ever make will be made in the next 20 years. How do we replace the burning of fossil fuels that has been the main driver for civilization's enormous progress of the last century? This no nonsense book examines all of the foreseeable energy resources that will be available and with impeccable logic, facts, good old common sense and detailed engineering analysis Eerkens peals away the myths and half truths that special interest groups hawk to push their own agendas. It is clear that we must heed Eerkens warning, it is imperative that we act responsibly to protect the future for our children.

After years in the industry, I was pleasantly suprised to happen upon this terrific book, easily the best, most useful reference book in the field of risk assessment published in the last 10 years. If more of us in the field would use this reference, perhaps our written material would actually be clear enough for our clients and the public to fully understand. Get one for your office, or at least encourage your school's library to order one for its reference section.

The book provided a wealth of background on the topic of machine safety. I particularly appreciated how it detailed the history of the respective safety standards.