Engineering-risk Books
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Great resourceReview Date: 2007-07-17
Proper content, horrible writingReview Date: 2005-04-13
Now for the style. I can only agree with one of the other reviewers regarding the comment he made about proofreading the book. I wonder if the book was proofread at all. There are so many errors and annoyances in this book, it starts working on my nerves fairly quickly. To name but a few:
The writer contradicts himself on several occasions. Sometimes this gets hilarious:
- Page 30: [The cost/benefit analysis] is the most important step of any risk analysis process.
- Page 35: As discussed in the previous example, the scope statement is the most important element of the risk analysis process.
- Page 39: The most important element of any risk analysis process is the recommendations of controls and safeguards... etc etc.
I understand that mister O'Leary is his mentor, but don't tell me five $%^$@ times that he is the Director of the Education Resource Center (pages ix, 12, 13, 65, 66).
The spelling errors are a real pain in the butt:
- page 217: "Aurebach" instead of "Auerbach" (my favorite; it's his own publisher).
- page 16: "can shared" instead of "can be shared"
- page 36: ".appropriate" instead of "appropriate"
- page 43: "their role" instead of "his role"
- page 45: "control" instead of "risk" (last word on the page)
- page 46: "these" instead of "there"
- page 47: "guideline" instead of "guidelines"
- page 55: "their" instead of "its" (it refers back to "job")
- page 64: wrong comma usage
- page 71: "in" instead of "it"
- .....
- page 162: "Originizational" instead of "Organizational"
- page 217: "Ozierz's" instead of "Ozier's"
The writer uses the Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V too many times. Definitions should be reworded, not blindly copied. See pages 7 and 57, pages 47 and 72 etc.
Sometimes bulleted items in the same list have a trailing dot, sometimes they haven't.
I can go on and on.
To wrap it up, the writing gets 1 star. Equals 5 stars. Which will be rounded to 2 stars, simply because of his sloppy writing. If the writing were better, I might give it 3 or 4 stars.
What? Are you managing risk?Review Date: 2007-07-26
AWESOME!!!Review Date: 2005-07-07
A bargain at 5 times the price. You can't get this info and data anywhere else.
Good...Review Date: 2005-11-04
Here is what I have to say about this title: it is good, but pretty dry. And I happen to hate dry books. However, I am willing to make an exception for this one, since it is a management book about security risk. It won't teach you how to hack, scan, exploit or protect and firewall, but rather how to define, document, manage, organize and facilitate.
I would recommend the book for those involved with formal risk assessment for organizations. Admittedly, I do not fit this profile myself, but I enjoyed it since the author presents a somewhat novel approach to security risk assessment (called FRAAP) and I was curious about it. I also liked the section on mapping controls, such as HIPAA to ISO17799, etc.
Anton Chuvakin, Ph.D., GCIA, GCIH, GCFA is a Security Strategist with a major security company. He is an author of the book "Security Warrior" and a contributor to "Know Your Enemy II" and the upcoming "Hacker's Challenge III". In his spare time, he maintains his security portal info-secure.org and his blog at O'Reilly. His next book will be about security log analysis.

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You don't need this bookReview Date: 2008-10-15
Although, if you read this book, you would undoubtedly learn something about simulation modelling, there are better books to teach you about simulation. Winston presents very little of the theory behind simulation in this book and instead focuses on teaching through examples. I don't have a problem with the use of examples in text books, I think examples are essential, but unless the theory used in those examples is also presented, it can be difficult to apply that theory to other problems that may differ from the examples. For those of you looking for a good introductory text on simulation, try "Simulation" by Sheldon M. Ross instead.
On the other hand, if you are only interested in learning how to use the @Risk computer package, then you don't need this book. Admittedly, Winston does do a reasonable job of introducing readers to the basics of @Risk, but if you have this program on your computer, then you will already have access to the built in tutorial video and the 511 page manual, which are a lot more detailed. When I learnt @Risk, I found that the easiest way to learn this program was to work through the tutorial video, stopping after each action was demonstrated and repeating it myself. Taking that approach, I learnt this program in under 3 hours. Whenever I need additional help, I just look at the instruction manual. I have barely touched Winston's book since buying it.
Note that @Risk is NOT a free-ware program. It is an add-on program for Microsoft Excel that must be purchased separately. It is an excellent program, which I highly recommend, but it is also quite pricey. This book includes a CD that contains a 30 day trial version of @Risk version 4.0 (the latest version of @Risk, at the time of writing this, is version 5.0), but if you wish to use this program after the 30 day period expires, then you are going to have to pay a lot. This book does not give instruction on simulation using any other computer packages.
The book was well received, the software was......Review Date: 2000-07-11
The book was well received; the software was poor.Review Date: 1999-08-19
Simulation Modeling Using @RISKReview Date: 2000-03-24
Software Update in Simulation Modeling Using @RISKReview Date: 2002-04-06


Excellent readingReview Date: 2003-06-24
The book is well written using a clear and rigorous style. However, it is not an easy-reading. A reader is supposed to be closely familiar with basic concepts of calculus, linear algebra, probability and statistics, and differential equations. Reading the book with pen and paper would bring much more than just glancing through. The resulting benefits worth these efforts.
The book is best for deep studying of risk analysis, and as a handbook for skilled professionals. I would also recommend it to everyone wishing to gain clear understanding of quantitative decision-making under risk.
Unreadable!Review Date: 2003-05-27
I cannot agree with Dr Byrd's view. I found this book to be impossible to read. It is highly mathematical, poorly laid out, written in a very heavy, formal style and focuses entirely on human health risk, which is not apparent from the book title.
I also know that some of the analyses that were performed in the book, and models Dr Cox created, have turned out to be extremely dubious, if not simply wrong.
I am afraid that I cannot recommend this book at all.
Review of Book by Dr. LA Cox, jr.Review Date: 2003-06-19
Unreadable!Review Date: 2003-05-27
I cannot agree with Dr Byrd's view. I found this book to be impossible to read. It is highly mathematical, poorly laid out, written in a very heavy, formal style and focuses entirely on human health risk, which is not apparent from the book title.
I also know that some of the analyses that were performed in the book, and models Dr Cox created, have turned out to be extremely dubious, if not simply wrong.
I am afraid that I cannot recommend this book at all.
THE DEFINITIVE TEXT IN RISK ANALYSISReview Date: 2003-02-07
for extra informational purposes.
Too bad!
Right now, Cox's Risk Analysis is the definitive text in risk analysis. You can purchase it, study it, and with sufficient time, pull together additional source materials to gain a comprehensive understanding of this exciting new discipline. At last the community has an advanced text about the analysis of human health effects risk analysis that covers modeling, causality, and management in a coherent way. Tony Cox's book covers many topics, including ones like multicriteria decision making, so that it has a real world feel and appropriate complexity. Where else can you find a text that moves, in an integrated way, from a detailed treatment of data to estimate human mortality risks to applications of principles of ethics in managing the same risks, such as utilitarianism, game theory, prisoners' dilemma, and moral hazards?

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Good Overview of Security IssuesReview Date: 2002-10-22
The book in particular focuses on security applications for the accounting industry so accountants in particular should find this text worthwhile. However, the book is still relevant to all fields and industries that are looking to get in on the e-business revolution.
Here are the topics Greenstein and Feinman address:
1. The Role of Third Parties
2. The Regulatory Environment: Cryptography and International Laws, Libel Laws, Domain Name Disputes
3. EDI, E-Commerce and the Internet
4. Risks of Insecure Systems: Data Interception, Social Engineering, Sabotage by Current/Former Employees, DoS attacks, Viruses
5. Risk Management: Managing Security Gaps, Culture Management, Disaster Recovery Plans
6. Internet Security Standards: Standards Organizations, Security Protocols
7. Cryptography and Authentication: Encryption Techniques, Public and Private Keys,
8. Firewalls
9. Payment Mechanisms: SET, SSL, Smart Cards
10. Intelligent Agents
11. Web-Marketing
Overall, Greenstein and Feinman do a fine job of covering the various technologies and issues that deal with security in e-business. This book was used as a text for an e-commerce security course I took during the summer of 2002. Whether you are studying this subject independently or whether you are an instructor looking to use this book for your course, Greenstein and Feinman's "E-Commerce Security, Risk Management and Control" is a decent choice.
Highly Recommended
Financial risk managementReview Date: 2002-04-04
Useful but boringReview Date: 2000-10-05
Useful but boringReview Date: 2000-10-05

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Cut rate scaremongeringReview Date: 2005-09-05
**Humans aren't smart enough to handle the technology it invents. Watch out for the boogy man!**
There, I just saved you 91 cents.
Skip it.
In frightening complexity.Review Date: 2001-11-18
Awakens us to our extraordinary capabilityReview Date: 2000-08-16
Entertaining but Scholarship-liteReview Date: 2001-05-30

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A Good Read!Review Date: 2004-03-09
Unclear, and full of errors.Review Date: 2003-06-16
[And shame, shame, shame on Wiley Finance's editors. Apart from the above errors, here are just two howlers that prove that the book was published before anybody read it: "Neper's number" for e (Napier?), "phenomene" as plural of phenomena (which would have made a kind of grammatical sense weren't it for the fact that phenomena is alread the plural of phenomenon.) No doubt Wiley Finance believes that sales are unaffected by reputation.]
A Good Read!Review Date: 2004-04-30
Very Comprehensive, But too few examplesReview Date: 2001-06-24
I considered this book as a good literature review on Value at Risk, but not the step-by-step one. It provides complete set of formulas but too few examples. I recommend for beginning- and intermediate-level readers who want to know the overall concept of Value at Risk.

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Brilliant?Review Date: 2002-02-16
The book is a little repetitive - obviously stemming from the author's desire to have each chapter tell part of her story and be a stand alone piece.
It seemed to me that the author could have used many more supporting examples throughout the book, instead of hitting the same ones over and over. Without prior knowledge of the issue, the book seems to show you a few examples and say 'trust me the rest are like these few'
The ending is definitly a little touchy feely, go out and change the world esque. But it is also just a few short chapters that you blast through.
The Dangerous 'Game' of Risk AssessmentReview Date: 2000-11-26
If you've ever been involved in a campaign against against a polluting industry, as I have, you'll recognise the following tactics used by them: Downplay estimates of hazard: Discount harmful effects experienced and reported by local communities as 'anecdotal'. Downplay estimates of exposure: Use complicated mathematical models or formulas that can only be analysed in a complicated computer program, that community groups cannot easily gain access to or understand. Downplay risks: Compare the risks to other 'voluntary' activities like smoking. Do not discuss whether the risks are necessary or whether they could be avoided entirely through reasonable alternative behaviours.
It is on this common sense latter point that the book really concentrates. Mary O'Brien gives the example of a woman standing besides an icy river that she needs to cross. Four 'experts' are advising her. The toxicologist tells her the water is probably free of chemicals; the cardiologist says she is at little risk as her heart is sound; the hydrologist states that the currents are probably safe; and the EPA specialist tells her she will probably survive the crossing as it is a low risk compared to many other environmental problems. They are amazed when she continues to refuse to wade the river. Until, of course, she points to the bridge a few yards away which they all had conveniently ignored or failed to notice!
O'Brien also emphasises the public right to know; after all, it is those living in a community who will suffer the impact of pollution. If we could actually name those individuals who will die from the effects of pollution, we could accuse agencies and businesses of premeditated murder. But why is it any different when they talk of a 0.1% increase in the likely number of premature deaths resulting from a process? Even though we can't name the people who will die, death is still death. And the polluting process still killed them.
O'Brien calls for all government agencies and businesses to put their options in understandable language, and to consider ways of creating the least possible environmental damage. She argues that all citizens should be given easy access to relevant information, especially on health effects, and that we should have access to legal and financial resources to enforce environmental laws.
For those campaigning on these issues, take a really close look at Chapter 16, 'Getting Started'. Here O'Brien gives step-by-step advice on how 'Alternatives Assessment' could be carried out, forcing regulators and industries to evaluate the real impact of their actions and forcing them to find the environmentally best options, not a statistical justification for the harm they are already doing.
For campaigners, don't get swallowed up in the 'Risk Assessment' game. At the end, however much scientific expertise and statistical skill you acquire, you will probably be defeated. And in the process, you are helping to justify a fundamentally flawed approach. Instead, ask the basic questions, and try to get the local politicians, regulators and bureaucrats to take on board the real issues of 'should we be doing this at all' and 'what could we do instead'.
Certainly the most helpful, and practical book of this kind that I have read in ten years of environmental campaigning.
Adrian Fox Chair of Environmental Working Group, West Wiltshire District Council, United Kingdom
Some good points are raised but then lost in emotionalismReview Date: 2000-09-23


Too much politics, too little thoughtful analysisReview Date: 2007-05-16
Superb, Crystal-Clear, Speaks Truth to PowerReview Date: 2008-04-03
----------reconstructed review-------------
This book is a learned essay, and I immediately discerned (I tend to read the index and bibliographies first, to understand the provenance of the author's knowledge) that the author has excelled at both casting a very wide net for sources, and at distilling and presenting those sources in a useful new manner with added insights.
Key points:
Natural disasters impact on 6 times more people than all the conflict on the planet.
Industrial irresponsibility, especially in the nuclear, chemical, and biological industries, is legion, and much more potentially catastrophic than any terrorist attack. Of special concern is the storage of large amounts of toxic, flammable, volatile, or reactive materials outside the security perimeters--this includes spent nuclear fuel rods, railcars with 90,000 tons of chlorine that if combined with fire would put millions at risk.
The entire book is an indictment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which the author says was designed for permanent failure (at the same time that it took over and then gutted the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)).
The author focuses on how concentrations of people, energy, and high-value economic targets make us more vulnerable than we need to be. Dispersal, and moving small amounts of toxic materials (just enough just in time, rather than a year's supply on site), can help.
The author outlines five remediation strategies:
REDUCTIONS of amounts
TRANSFERS from outside the wire to inside the wire
SUBSTITUTION (e.g. of bleach for chlorine)
MIND-SET SHIFT to emphasize public safety and regulation over profit
REFORM of the political system, where federal laws now set CEILINGS for safety rather than floors (one of many reasons we have 27 secessionist movements in the USA--the federal government is insolvent and abjectly corrupt and incapable).
We learn that post-9/11 we have spent tens of billions on counter-terrorism to ill-effect, while completely neglecting rudimentary precautions and protections against natural and industrial disasters that will inevitably turn into catastrophes for lack of competent organizations.
The author emphasizes that complex systems will fail no matter what, but it is much more dangerous to the public if the government and the industrial executives refuse to do their jobs. The author coins the term "executive failure" to describe top leaders who deliberately decide to ignore federal regulations on safety, and describes a number of situations where near-nuclear meltdown and other disasters came too close to reality.
The power grid, PRIOR TO deregulation, is treated as a model of a system that developed with six positive traits:
1. Bottom-up
2. Voluntary alliances
3. Shared facilities at cost
4. Members support independent research & development
5. Oversight stresses commonality interdependence
6. Deregulation is harmful to public safety
The author sums up the enduring sources of failure as:
ORGANIZATIONAL -- flawed by design (pyramidal organizations cannot scale nor digest massive amounts of new fast information)
EXECUTIVE -- deliberate high crimes and misdemeanors, seeking short-term profit without regard to long-term costs to the public safety. "We almost lost Toledo." Buy the book for that story alone.
REGULATORY -- the corruption of Congress, now known to be legendary.
The author tells us that globalization has eliminated the "water-tight bulkheads" within industries and economies, meaning that single points of failure (like the Japanese factory making silicon chips) can impact around the world and immediately. The author prefers to nurture networks of small firms, and this is consistent with other books I have read: economies of scale are no longer, they externalize more costs to the public than they save in efficiencies.
The book ends with an overview of the Internet, which is not the author's forte. He notes that our critical infrastructure is connected to the Internet, but I like to add emphasis here: all of our SCADA (supervisory control and data administration) are on the Internet and hackable.
I like very much the author's view that Microsoft and others should be held liable for security blunders that cost time and money to the end users. I recall that Bill Gates once said that if cars were built like computers they would cost very little and run forever....to which the auto industry executive replied: yes, and they would crash every four blocks and kill every fourth person (or something along those lines). We still do not have a desktop analytic suite of tool because of proprietary protections for legacy garbage.
I am certain that We the People can live up to the promise contained in Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace which, as with all books I publish, is free online as well as being offered by Amazon for those who love to hold and read and annotate hard copy.
Here are other books I recommend all of which support the author's very grave concerns about our irresponsibility as a Nation:
Pandora's Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy
The Blue Death: Disease, Disaster, and the Water We Drink
The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead
The Informant: A True Story
Conspiracy of Fools: A True Story
The Republican War on Science
The Price of Loyalty : George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O'Neill
The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Paths to a Moral Economy
The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
The Next CatastropheReview Date: 2008-02-16
Kevin MacG. Adams, Ph.D.


offers a detailed testing frameworkReview Date: 2006-03-11
However, to the extent that something is better than nothing, the book offers detailed steps and metrics that you can evaluate. Some are unavoidably rough, like trying to estimate how long testing will take. But the authors give reasonable suggestions on this and other factors.
AN approach, rather than THE approachReview Date: 2005-12-30
I found the introductory chapter rather simplistic, describing the historical testing methodologies that there have been. All of these were found to be deficient, when, over the horizon gallops John Wayne, and the methodology known as Risk and requirements based testing (RRBT). That may well have been true, but "risk" has been a well recognised part of the mainstream testing for a number of years. Therefore, the justification for using RRBT is almost taken as read by the majority of those looking into the volume.
Having said that, there are items that give a different insight in the pages written. This reader found the `quick scan' undertaken at the start of test planning an appealing concept. This stage is undertaken in order to build up what the authors refer to as the `Test management File'. This `file' was not well introduced, and it was some time before it was realised that this is not so much a file, but a method of organising information. A meta-file would be a better way of understanding this. Perhaps something has been lost in the translation from the Dutch.
The chapter on test estimation was particularly helpful, with good sections on why estimates are often inaccurate, what items are often left out of estimates (including `test management', would you believe), and what to do if the estimate, however it is achieved, is not acceptable to the stake-holders or others who are footing the bill. At this stage, if the estimates are too high, there are very stark choices; either risk are addressed, or they are not.
Key elements of RRBT is that testing can stop at any point, and if that were to happen, the BEST tests would already have been performed, giving the best value to the business. Four test types are recognised by the authors, although these do not necessarily relate to test cycles. These test types are the intake test, the basic test, the complete test, and the final test. There is an order of dependency within these; if the intake test is not successful, there is little or no point proceeding.
The appendices are for the most part an excellent source of additional material. Of special note is the roles and responsibilities of those involved in testing. This would be useful in the staff selection process. One point where the supplementary material did break down was in the glossary. This is a little surprising as Erik van Veenendaal is one of the authors, with extensive experience of glossaries. It could be it was felt that a comprehensive glossary was unnecessary - perhaps this should have be stated more clearly (I did not find this sentiment referred to).
The final chapter discusses the transfer activities, and discusses where lessons can and should be learnt from one testing project, to be carried on to other future testing situations. There are other sources of material available on this extensive topic; having said that, the coverage was limited.
So, would I recommend the book to others? My big reservation to those outside the LogicaCMG sphere of influence is that I believe that there is no set answer, no `one size fits all' approach. Thus the answer is "Yes, .................. BUT". Have other sources of material, and question the advice given. Take what is good, and useful to you, and leave other elements. Use the volume to help you answer why you do what you do, by taking a look at something else (i.e. the LogicaCMG approach). It should be noted that some other volumes on `Test Management' also cover, for example, test techniques, which are not within the scope of the present volume.
If you are within the LogicaCMG circle, the decision is clearer - buy!

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Double Value: on Environmental *and* Information StrategyReview Date: 2001-06-02
This is the best of the several environmentally-oriented books I have reviewed recently, and it offers a double value: not only does it lay out a persuasive social, economic, and political case for abandoning the Risk Paradigm of permissive pollution in favor of an Environmental Paradigm of zero pollution; but it also provides a very fine--really excellent--case for why the current government and industry approaches to information about the environment and threats to the environment are severely flawed. In a nutshell, the current approach divorces "good science" (code for permitting what you can't prove will kill the planet today) from social consciousness and good policy; and the current approach insists on studying risk one contaminant at a time, rather than as a whole.
This book is persuasive; I believe author has the right stuff and should be consulted on major policy issues. I believe the underlying moral values and intellectual arguments that this book makes, about both science and social policy, should be adopted by the Cultural Creatives and the independent voters of America, and that the recommendations of this book are so serious as to warrant country by country translations and promulgation.
This book is exceptional in that is combines a readable policy essay for the non-technical citizen, with deeply documented technical appendices and notes that support a middle ground series of chapters relating scientific findings to long-term policy issues.
From many small actions come revolutionary change--this book is a necessary brick in the road to environmental reform. The bottom line is clear: every year more and more toxins are building up in our blood streams, and this is going to have an overwhelmingly negative impact on the humanity, capability, and survivability of our great grandchildren three generations down--we have not have grandchildren seven generations down if the insights from this book fail to reach the people, and through the people, the policy makers and legislators.
Thornton's PoisonReview Date: 2002-01-01
There is no difference in methods used by Thornton as author of his MIT-based book and Thornton as (co)author of several brochures about chlorine/PVC as Greenpeace worker. There is only a difference in style, which makes it even more difficult for the average reader to know where the author is a little economical with the truth. Or to say it with the words of the Hamburg (Germany) court in the case of Greenpeace e.V. vs. Engelbeen: "The reader understands from the actual context of the text that Greenpeace presents facts that are overstated or, even though they give true information about a fact, they do not give all the details, so that at the very least a false impression can be created in the mind of the person receiving the message.". That is what Thornton does again and again in his work.
The basic assumption that the introduction of chlorine in an organic molecule in general makes that molecule more toxic is true. But that this is also true for the introduction of oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen(oxides), phosphor(oxides), etc. is omitted. Every organochlorine that can be inhaled, ingested or can pass the skin is toxic, carcinogenic, mutagenic, hormone-disrupting, etc. at some dose. But that is also the case for all organics, whether these contain only carbon and hydrogen (as is especially the case for aromatics) or other elements like oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen,... Again that is omitted from the book.
The introduction of chlorine makes a molecule more fat soluble, but that is similar to the addition of a CH3 group (an extra carbon with three hydrogen atoms) to such a molecule. Indeed some organochlorines are POPs (persistent organic pollutants), that means persistent *and* bio-accumulating *and* toxic. A few hundred of the more than 10,000 industrial and over 2,000 natural organochlorines can be found in human blood. With the today's analytical techniques, we can assume that most of the others are either not persistent enough, or don't bio-accumulate at all, or are released in such minute quantities that they can't be detected, even not after bio-accumulation, which makes their environmental relevance rather questionable. But that also can be said of a few hundred of non-chlorinated materials like PAHs and nitro-PAHs. While their bio-accumulation is mainly at the lower end of the food chain, their impact is far higher than for organochlorines like dioxins, as they are released in quantities which are orders of magnitude higher. Further, (nitro)PAHs are cancer inducers, while dioxins are cancer promoters at high levels, but cancer inhibitors at low levels...
One can write a similar book about the dangers of oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen, phosphor,... for all life on earth. That will be more difficult than for chlorine, for the simple reason that much less is known of the results of the introduction of these elements into organics. But what is known don't make them less suspect than organochlorines. And nature is not less toxic, carcinogenic, mutagenic,... than industry, to the contrary...
A few examples
of (deliberate?) omissions by Thornton: Half lives of organochlorines are given in *pure* water (page 33). E.g. for 1,2 dichloroethane
(EDC, an intermediate for making PVC) that is 72 *years*. That has nothing to do with real life, where bacteria break down
EDC within three *days* (figure from the biological waste water treatment where I work)!
Thornton only gives carcinogenity
figures for organochlorines and omits these for the "safe" alternatives (page 60). According to the German Occupational Health
Authority, 50% of the workplace carcinogens are nitrogen compounds, 30% others (metals, hydrocarbons) and 20% contain chlorine,
while chlorine is involved in 60% of all chemical processes...
Thornton gives the graph of dioxin deposition to the Great
Lakes sediment (page 228), but stops in 1980, so that there is a good correlation with chlorine production. But he omits the
1980-2000 data which show that with steady chlorine production (and a tripled PVC production), dioxin deposition has fallen
dramatically back to the pre-1945 levels.
Thornton even promotes alternatives for PVC (page 366), where the process (iron
ore sintering, all from uncontaminated raw materials!) emits orders of magnitude more dioxins than PVC in its whole life cycle.
The steel sector is good for 118 g TEQ dioxins in Belgium, the PVC industry emits only 0.025 g... Rather strange for a promotor
af the "precautionary principle"...
There are such incredible (deliberate?) errors in what he says about the emissions of the EDC/VCM factory where I work, which are published every year since 1989 (and occasionally by the Dutch government and the UNEP), which are known by Greenpeace, that this alone completely discredits his work.
But if you believe that chlorine is invented by the devil, this is the book for you. If you are more critical, look at the detailed critique on the Chlorophiles web pages...
Sincerely,
Ferdinand Engelbeen
Worker in a chlorine/EDC/VCM/herbicides production site in Rotterdam, The
Netherlands.
A well crafted deceptionReview Date: 2001-03-10
Pandora's thinkingReview Date: 2006-02-25
Thornton states "organochlorines dominate virtually all of the official and unofficial lists of hazardous pollutants in the environment." Environmental scientists merely scratch the surface of chemical complexity. There may be tens of thousands of synthetic residues that could be detected in the environment with sensitive analytic methods. Yet for many, no analytic methods exist, nor is there a comprehensive program to explore the potentially vast universe. Thornton accepts official lists as comprehensive. This selection bias leads him to focus on chlorine-containing compounds. His book is based on myopic appreciation of chemical complexity in the environment. This problem pervades many studies on which Thornton relies. It is wiser to appreciate how little is known about trace pollutants in the environment.
Statistical association does not establish causality. This fundamental principle is oft forgotten. Studies may properly mention a pollutant is only "associated" with an effect. In common discussion, however, well-intentioned people may claim causality that is far-fetched. Given a myriad of synthetic residues in the environment, how could one be distinguished as harmful, to the exclusion of the vast array of other possibilities? Generally, it cannot.
Our health is influenced by our foods. Foods contain enormous chemical complexity, including natural pesticides intrinsic to plants, defenses against predators. When chemists report much lower exposures to synthetic residues, it is difficult to isolate their risk, amid the confounding factors. Generally, risk estimates are based NOT on observed dose/response relationships at actual environmental doses, but on cautious assumptions derived from vastly higher doses to test species. Some claim we have "toxic chemicals" in our bodies. In a sense they are right, because all substances are toxic in sufficient dose. There will often be low doses below which no harm is likely. An everyday example: taking an aspirin may be healthful, but to swallow many can be fatal. Is aspirin toxic? Yes, at sufficient dose, no, at apt dose. By this logic, laundry lists of chemicals with supposed propensity to induce cancer, such as Table 2.1, set aside the essential issue of dose and signify nothing.
Organo-chlorines "build to higher and higher concentrations in air, water, and sediments." How to explain the 95+ percent decline in many organo-chlorines on a global basis during the past three decades?
Thornton errs by claiming first chlor-alkali production used mercury. Diaphragm technology began in Germany during 1890, whereas the first mercury cell factory began a few years later. A trivial error, yet needless, germane when an author is writing about this industry.
Thornton alludes to the promise of greener substances. Tellingly, this notion is not elaborated upon in any intelligible way.
Some environmentalists dwell on a few old bugaboos, yet do not call for exploration of whether substances in use today - including ones without chlorine -- yield environmental residues. They look narrowly or backwards. "The scale and severity of the [chlorine] threat is rivaled only by the hazards associated with climate change, nuclear technologies, and the reduction of biological diversity." How can someone compare vinyl siding (containing chlorine) to a nuclear weapon? When an author does not pay heed to uncertainties and adopts simplifying assumptions, he is absurdly led to equate a useful, ubiquitous plastic with a nuclear weapon. One is reminded of poet William Butler Yeats: "the worst are full of passionate intensity."
What is the author's solution? A government-designed economy, steered by a technocratic elite of eco-scientists in good standing among activists. During the course of the 20th century, political planning of economies has fallen into disrepute. The thinking in this book helps exemplify why.
Hydrochloric acid in our stomach helps us digest food and destroy disease agents. Our biological need for chlorine is not to be learned from Thornton. Yet his book has value, if unintended. It could serve as reading material for a graduate-level class to help students cultivate critical thinking on environmental topics.
What are some books that offer better education? A few options:
John Emsley. 1994. The Consumer's Good Chemical Guide. W.H. Freeman.
W. Baarschers. 1996. eco-facts & eco-fiction: understanding the environmental debate. Routledge Press.
Aaron Wildalsky. 1995. But is it True?: a citizen's guide to environmental health and safety issues. Harvard University Press.
Geoffrey Kabat. 2008. Hyping Health Risks: environmental hazards in daily life and the science of epidmemiology. Columbia Univ. Press.
J. Rodricks. 1991. Calculated Risks: understanding the toxicity and human health risks of chemicals in our environment. Cambridge University Press.
John F. Ross. 1999. Living Dangerously: navigating the risks of everyday life. Perseus.
National Research Council. Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the human diet. National Academy Press.
Cass R. Sunstein. 2005. Laws of Fear: beyond the precautionary principle. Cambridge University Press.
A Clear Eyed View of The Problem...And A SolutionReview Date: 2002-06-15
The current industry-driven approach which assumes chemicals "innocent until proven guilty" has clearly failed us. It is based on a microscopic and simple linear chemical-by-chemical rating system. This approach does not take into account accumulation of pollutants nor does it address the myriad and exponential effects of the chemicals in all the complex systems in the biosphere whose dynamics are still only dimly understood. This approach is heavily tilted towards the polluters as Mr. Thornton so skillfully shows.
Mr. Thornton presents a solution that includes a much more prudent "guilty until proven innocent" approach that puts the rights of human beings and the planet first. He proposes viable alternatives for chlorine-based products and proposes a new paradigm for rating chemicals and classes of chemicals that takes into account all the "unknowns" and accumulation problems that the pro-industry (and one currently used by our own EPA)...does not.
Mr. Thornton advocates true science be applied to the problem instead of the "good science" that industry always touts. Unfortunately the term [servant]whore to corporate interests.
A call to arms has been rasied and champion has arisen. Mr. Thornton, on behalf of all humans, plants, and animals....thank you. An excellent job and stunningly good book.
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2 thumbs up!